Reading Between The Lines:
As I read the financial news this morning (the paid for news) I couldn’t help but be entertained by the financial columnist, Ben Stein’s piece. Ben says, “No worries mate. There is no recession in sight.” Taking a few liberties with Ben’s reporting, I assume he meant “No recession in sight at night when I can’t find my glasses,” and Ben’s got some glasses. Rose colored to boot.
Here was the reasoning behind the good Mr. Stein’s advice to go forth and buy all the Wall Street stocks that you can pack home:
1. “Don’t worry about the banks, the government won’t let them fail, even if they have to buy all the bad debt up themselves and replace the banks shaky liabilities with good ‘ol U.S. greenbacks.”
Here’s the problem: “The Government” doesn’t have any money; they have tax payers and a revolving loan that is approaching $9 TRILLION, with unfunded liabilities that add up to about $40 TRILLION more, give or take a few bucks.
2. “Big mergers and acquisitions are once again receiving some funding, which demonstrates that credit markets are not nearly as ‘frozen’ as some reports have suggested. This shows support for the markets and a benefit to investors.”
Here’s the problem: When you have a whole lot of investors’ money (often called OPM or Other People’s Money) you have to do something with it, or things get a little slow around the bank. And, when the FED is wearing out the printing presses to put more “liquidity” (spelled I N F L A T I O N) into the markets…its gotta go somewhere, so a bad investment is better than no investment at all. Besides, when big companies merge, they can save money by canning a few thousand additional Middle American workers.
Also, if these loans go as bad as the foolish housing loans did; see reason #1. No worries mate.
3. “Federal and state spending remain extremely strong and this is an “automatic stabilizer” that keeps a huge segment of the workforce employed and buying products and services. The defense sector is especially strong, alas, and will continue to be very strong for some time to come (maybe for all time to come).”
Here’s the REALLY BIG PROBLEM: I reiterate that Federal and State Governments don’t have any money. They never had any money and will never have any money. . . that they didn’t take from tax payers. The defense sector doesn’t have any money either, they just spend a lot.
In “The Biggest Lie Ever Believed,” I talk about the war economy and say that it should not continue to exist at some point. But, if and when that time comes, the private sector economy has to step up and fill the gap for those making bombs to buns. So given that choice, maybe we will fuel
Finally, Mr. Stein ends his well thought reasoning with the always present ‘escape clause’ saying, “Those are the reasons (and others) I don’t see a recession brewing. Or, if one is brewing, it doesn’t strike me as a long, strong one.”
Notice the operative word is “OR” and “doesn’t strike me.” Also notice that ol’ Ben is all about more credit, big mergers, big government, investors money and. . . bye-bye Miss American Pie.
Wake up

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