Liars Figure; And Figures Do Lie:
Good Morning
Mark Twain said, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. It’s the latter that I want to talk about today, that’s the lie that your government representatives and Wall Street excel in.
While on this subject, Gregg Easterbrook also said, Torture numbers, and they’ll confess to anything.
Let’s look at a typical scenario of statistical lying. Say that you live in an area where the housing market has taken a beating to the point that no one is building homes and no one is buying any existing housing, and to make matters worse, asking prices are down some 50% off of their peak.
Just when you thought things were totally down for the count, some fool falls off of the turnip truck and decides to build a new house. Since there had been no other building permits issued thus far in 2008, the headlines would appear as; Building Permits Rise by a 100%; as a home building craze returns to Mayberry.
That headline would be true. From zero to one is a hundred percent and the guy who took out the permit was crazy, so a “craz” is within statistical lying boundaries. But wait, there’s more. Say the new price for the home was some 50% higher than the price of similar existing homes. The second part of the headline would read; Home Prices Skyrocket by 50%.
Wall Street operates in the exact same manner as they report gains on a day to day basis. Pretend that you had a bank stock that went down by 50% over a 30 day period or went from $50 to $25. If that stock were to come up by five dollars, to $30, the report would be; Bank Stocks Rise by 20% in late day trading! Of course, you would still be a $20.00 per share loser, but who want’s to read that garbage?
Last but not least, when it come to big damn lies and statistics, our government is difficult to compete against. As an example, inflation was reported for 2007 as being in the neighborhood of 2%. Now remember that food, fuel and housing are not included in that number or it would be reported that inflation is somewhere north of 6%. But government torture made the numbers confess otherwise.
Unemployment statistics are another sector of an endless list of government economic reports that have been cooked so many different ways that even government doesn’t know what the truth is. Government does know that low unemployment is good, and so why let the truth get in the way. Here’s the way unemployment reporting works; If 50,000 people have become unemployed, and later on 5,000 of those people are reemployed, the headline reads; 5,000 Jobs Gained as Employment Booms.
So why doesn’t it say; “45,000 people remain unemployed?” Well, I think Aaron Levenstein said it best; “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”
Wake up
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And that is the truth, Mike. But we can look forward to NO positive change until the American people decide to educate themselves on candidates voting records and on how the the economy is operated today in the United States. Only then can a large enough sector of our population threaten our elected representatives with losing their jobs by writing them and calling them with the facts (not media spin and sound bites) and demanding a positive (not the present corrupt) contribution to our government, in lieu of the lies that are getting very tiresome to say the least. Like you have said before, it is up to us. Our government will not change for the better on their own. Too much money out of their pockets to voluntarily go this way. But they will go the way of truth if they are truly concerned about maintaining the office they hold at this time. It is up to each one of us; and this will become an educated majority,regardless of party affiliation that can take back a government of truth. -bb
Hey Billy B.
Yep, the government serves at our pleasure, a rule that politicians wish weren’t so and most citizens are totally oblivious of. We hold all of power and refuse to use it, but that to will change.
Once the economic decline becomes serious enough to create further loss of homes, autos, jobs, meals out, travel, etc. etc., the people will pay much better attention.
It’s too bad that it has to come that, but it does and it will. Thanks for the comment.
Hey Mike! Do not forget the old accountancy joke. Ask an account how much 2 + 2 is and he will ask what you want it to be. Since the Enron disaster became public it seems that our corporate leaders(and I am sure the government too) have been asking their accountants also. I would think that the government should decide on a simple standard accounting practice and require companies to abide by it. I know that would probably be way to simple. There does need to be a lot of standardization re-implemented throughout our society. It was one of the main reasons we became a great country back when and it is still needed to stabilize a lot of things now. Capitalism has it’s good points but like anything else if allowed to run unchecked it will spiral out of control in the worst ways. Have yourself a good one Mike!
Michael,
It’s amazing how the financial channels news can say, “Oil slides to $96 per barrel in late day trading.”
Just a few months ago, they reported that $50 per barrel would break the U.S. And they were right!
All of the spin on the numbers is doing noting to put off the inevitable decline.
I put tires on my pickup today and it cost $683.00. How long can people continue to pay these prices? Not long ago, that price would have been $320.00 for the same tires.
When the credit cards are all up to the hilt and house and car payment are in arrears, the spin on the numbers will scarcely matter.
Have great one Michael.