Mike Folkerth - King of Simple

Western Colorado’s own Humorist / Economist

The Perfect Plan; For Depression!

Good Morning Middle America, your King of Simple News is up and at ‘em.

Alert reader Billy B posted the following remarks written by Robert L. Hickerson, March 1, 1995.

1. We will never again be able to get sufficient growth of the economy to eliminate or even markedly reduce unemployment. NAFTA, GATT, and Clinton’s hope of growing the economy to solve unemployment is doomed to failure.

2. The promise of competing in the global economy is a hoax perpetrated upon the working and unemployed people of this country because over time a nation needs to buy and sell overseas in roughly equivalent amounts.

3. All attempts to reduce the deficit, balance the budget or pay off the national debt are futile. The deficit and the national debt represent the subsidy the government has paid in its attempt to keep growth and unemployment at the level of social tolerance.

4. The steady state economy into which we are being inexorably forced implies an interest rate of zero.

5. An interest rate of zero (as Hubbert explains) means the end of the money system. We are being forced to completely rethink our cultural ideas about how to organize our economy and distribute purchasing power.

6. Increasingly desperate means will be used by those who think we can continue to have business as usual.

7. The proposals of Negative Population Growth should be implemented immediately.

It is my opinion that this list represents the most clearly written and concise synopsis of America’s economic situation, that I have ever read; and I’ve read a lot. Brilliance doesn’t have to come in long form. There is a famous quote, “If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter.” Robert Hickerson had more time.

Hickerson’s item number six explains a lot about our current election debacle and the ideas being trotted out. Ideas such as, “Americans don’t have any money, so why don’t we send them some? Let’s send everyone $600, but wait, there’s more, we’ll throw in $300 for every dependent kid. Oh yeah, and next year we’ll raise taxes.”

M. King Hubbert’s studies on a steady state economy (not based on growth) suggest that an interest rate of zero will become necessary. Sound like a nutty idea? The second largest economy in the world doesn’t think so, that is exactly what the Japanese did.

The U.S. is entering a very similar period to that which Japan has suffered for years, it’s called deflation. That is, deflation of your home value and the purchasing power of your good ol’ greenbacks, however we’re experiencing inflation in nearly everything that we purchase…like food and fuel. In precise economic terms, these twin events occurring simultaneously are referred to as “really, really bad.”

Japan’s central bank realized that their economic situation was really, really bad in 1995 when they found themselves in the deflation mode. In February of 1999 (acting on this information in the lightning speed of only four years) the Bank of Japan lowered their interest rate to zero…as in none, nada, nonexistent, where it stayed until 2006 when it was raised to 0.25%.

Japan earned the envious distinction of being the only example of prolonged deflation in a major economy since the Great Depression period of the 1930s. The U.S. apparently can’t stand the thought of being unseated and is attempting to regain the title by entering a second Great Depression. That’ll show those Japanese.

Our monetary system and our physical system of land and resources are in direct conflict. We’ll talk more about that tomorrow. In the mean time, I think the U.S. may take the gold metal this year in “Depression Planning.”

 
Comments
1.
On May 31st, 2008 at 10:28 am, WmA said:

Two things come to mind.. First, when you consider inflation, I believe our interest rates are lower than Japan.. Zero interest rates, and zero inflation are higher than four percent interest rates, and six, or seven percent real inflation.. (not CPI)..

Second, I understand that we import real goods, and export shaky u.s. treasury notes.. But, with u.s. military World Domination, who is gonna be the first to refuse our rubber check?? How long do our leaders think is “long enough”?? Wma…

2.
On May 31st, 2008 at 2:45 pm, Mike Folkerth said:

Inflation is a tax by which the government transfers wealth from the people to itself. Adding the interest and the inflation is the formula to determine what Jimmy Carter referred to as the “misery index.” The higher the number, the higher the misery.

Thus in your example, the misery index would equal for the U.S. would be 10. In the example of the Japanese, it would equal zero.

China has the worlds largest standing army and for all practical purposes, controls our purse stings in the way of financing our debt…or not.

Japan will be the first industrial nation to undergo a a melt down due to an aging population that will become too great to be supported by a shrinking working class. Their troubles are just beginning.

Mentions on other sites...
  1. mike gatt on August 1st, 2008 at 3:42 am
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