Mike Folkerth - King of Simple

Western Colorado’s own Humorist / Economist

U.S. Economy and The Greedy Chinese:

When I asked my 4 year old grandson why he was getting bigger and bigger he didn’t really know, but his sister, overhearing the question and armed with the vast knowledge acquired in 1st grade replied, “He had a birthday.” Not a bad answer. A far better response in fact than I get from most adults when asked why the economy grows and grows.

What happens when the U.S. economy doesn’t grow, is a question that millions of Americans will soon be able to answer correctly. It results in extended unemployment and homes being repossessed by the millions. Things that can’t go on forever won’t.

The employment picture is an area that is being given far too little ink. The U.S. has lost jobs for five consecutive months. This decline has far deeper roots than are being reported, after all, who wants to talk about growing unemployment when there are Vice Presidential running mates to be picked?

The U.S. by virtue of our immigration policies, added to domestic births, must grow by a minimum of 125,000 jobs per month. But it isn’t. We are in fact, contracting. Each and every month the inflow into the job market is approximately 180,000 if we consider the addition of illegal immigration.

With five consecutive months of net job losses, the imbalance can best be pictured as a dam with the inflow stream representing job seekers and outflow representing new hiring. As we can see in this example, the imbalance would cause the reservoir behind the dam to fill up with job seekers.

Even if new employment began to rise to historical exponential levels (don’t hold your breath), the continual inflow would be sufficient to match the newly created jobs. So what about the glut of the millions who were filling up the reservoir? Uh-oh!

A country that depends on exponential growth in the job market will reach the mathematically impenetrable point of what the King of Simple describes as “Maximum Sustainable Employment.”

Let’s look at Maximum Sustainable Employment with Mikeronomics. Pretend that you had a business plan for a bread bakery and in your business plan you intended to hire 10 new people every week. Eventually, bread sales would reach a maximum and you couldn’t possibly continue your hiring practice without going broke. I just described the U.S. economy.

Bread sales would reach a maximum due to per capita consumption or what we refer to as market saturation. But let’s play pretend and say that would never happen. The next barrier would be resource depletion, such as wheat. Never going to happen?

For those who have read my book and those who read the King of Simple News, I have pointed out many times that should China alone consume at the per capita rate of the U.S., the remainder of the world would have what share of resources? Who said zero? That’s the correct answer.

In news today, the World Wide Food organization (WWF) reported, “If China were to follow the lead of the United States, where each person demands nearly 10 hectares (24.7 acres) of productive area, China would demand the available capacity of the entire planet.”

So there I was, driving down the street in my Hummer on the way to my beach house to pick up a few things before I headed to my private jet and Europe for a well deserved weekend getaway when my Bluetooth rang and my secretary informed me that my 16 year old son had just wrecked his new Porsche in his private school’s parking lot!

To make matters worse, my broker phoned minutes later to say that oil had spiked again due to those greedy Chinese expanding to motor scooters. What is this world coming to?

 
Comments
1.
On June 10th, 2008 at 11:18 am, WmA said:

Hi Mike..

High unemployment equals low wages.. Works for them..
You might find this hard to believe, but I’ve read an economist that claimed that jobs will grow to fill the available need.. Can’t remember the name, but that is what the u.s. economy wants.. They want high unemployment, so wages fall.. They claim low wages create jobs.. You can see where immigration fits in here..
BTW, I don’t agree. I like decent wages..
Wma…

2.
On June 10th, 2008 at 11:53 am, Pete Murphy said:

It would be wrong to conclude that growth is required to avoid unemployment and a drop in our standard of living. However, to avoid those things in an economy with a stable population, it’s absolutely critical to avoid a trade deficit in manufactured products. If population growth is halted, then the millions of people currently employed in the construction industry must find employment elsewhere. That “elsewhere” is in the manufacturing sector of the economy, which could easily absorb those workers if our domestic consumption of manufactured products is met by domestic manufacturing. This is why stabilizing our population and eliminating our trade deficit must go hand-in-hand.

3.
On June 10th, 2008 at 12:13 pm, Mike Folkerth said:

Wma,

Will Rogers said “An economist’s guess is liable to be as good as anybody else’s.”

The U.S. doesn’t necessarily want high unemployment, they want exponential growth which eventually leads to high unemployment when “maximum sustainable employment” is reached.

Technology helps us to reach this level of employment much quicker by allowing one individual with the assistance of modern tech and machines to produce immense quantities of goods. Therefore reducing the workforce and quickening the depletion of resources in the process.

The U.S. employment rate over our history has been excellent if viewed from raw numbers.

What these people are employed AT is the deal killer. We are living by artificial means, people working at jobs that contribute no benefit to our society. As our decline deepens, these types of jobs will be eliminated.

As far as the economist who said that jobs grow to meet population, there are sterling examples around the world of countries that have massive poverty and starvation…where are the jobs? That dog won’t hunt.

4.
On June 10th, 2008 at 12:25 pm, Mike Folkerth said:

Pete,
Thanks for commenting. Our current demise has been fueled and strengthened by an imbalance of importing goods and importing people, while exporting of our manufacturing.

Your point is well taken that the above scenario cannot long exist. We must return to providing for our own consumption. Suggesting as some economists do, that cheap imports create jobs is ludicrous. Unless, that is, if they are talking about jobs in China!

5.
On June 10th, 2008 at 5:16 pm, mickster said:

Miguel -

I recently spent the night in Chama, NM. I always eaten at Vera’s when in Chama. I asked the front desk lady at my motel why Vera’s was closed. She said Vera had died but her family was able to sell the business; however, the new owner couldn’t find anyone who wanted to work.

I keep hearing that a lot of the time of late: No one wants to work.

So…what about that? How do these people make ends meet?

Su Amigo -

Miguel Tambien

6.
On June 10th, 2008 at 7:03 pm, Mike Folkerth said:

Mickster,

The only answer that I can conceive of is that the restaurant does not pay more than our welfare social safety net.

Many jobs today are efforts in futility, paying less than even a meager living wage. As unemployment increases, wages tend to trend down due to an oversupply of labor creating a double edged sword for worker.

Restaurants are one of the industries that will suffer mightily during the coming recessionary times due to being supported by discretionary income.

I think that you just observed first hand the massive changes that are taking place in the U.S.

7.
On October 12th, 2008 at 5:43 pm, davemooregan said:

Fengbo Zhang: A Chinese Economist’s Journey
He has been helping the Chinese top leaders in policy-making since 1980s. He represented top
Japanese companies for the rapid investment boom in the USA in 1990. In the world largest Bank,
he defeated World Financial Storm, also experienced 9/11 tragedy. Now, he continued success
during the USA mortgage crisis at Citigroup. This book truly recorded his legendary life.
Yeah!!! send those greed bastards to us and we’ll exploit them! http://www.greedypeople.com

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