Mike Folkerth - King of Simple

Western Colorado’s own Humorist / Economist

It’s the Growth For Gosh Sakes!

Good Morning Middle America, your King of Simple News is on the air…again.

Every so often I feel compelled to go back to the roots of “The Biggest Lie Ever Believed.” Our economy is based on impossible math which suggests that exponential growth is possible in a finite world. It isn’t.

But those who continually promise to defeat the “exact science” continue to win over the truth tellers. And that is because we want to believe there is an easy path to prosperity. There is a path alright, but it leads to a little wooden house out back, the more glorified of which are called “two holers.”

I just read an Energy Department report predicting that our fossil fuels consumption will grow by more than 50% over the next 20 years. The report suggested that China would have something to do with that increase as they are expected to experience continual economic growth.

When I see the words “economic growth” and “continual” in the same sentence, I go into what can be best described as a “wall-eyed fit.” After I recover from my fit, I start writing bad things about our leaders and government agencies.

The Energy Department is one of the agencies that I write bad things about. Under the steady hand of the Energy Department, which was created to help the U.S. become independent of foreign energy, the U.S. has steadily gone down the tubes in the area of foreign energy dependence. Since 1977, we have gone from being 46.5% dependent to approximately 75% dependent on kindly foreign nations that hate our guts.

Ordinary people may ask why we would become so dependent on others. But not the King of Simple News reading people; we know why. We know that the U.S. doesn’t have enough oil to run this outfit and if we really want to drive to work today, we’ll have to do it with someone else’s oil or get a bike.

The report went on to predict that the world’s demand for liquid fuels — mostly oil — will continue to grow to 113 million barrels a day by 2030, nearly a third more than is consumed today.

That should be quite a trick, since most sane geophysicists believe that maximum global production is in the range of 78,000,000 barrels per day. That leaves 35,000,000 barrels per day being produced under item 3 of plan “B” which reads, “and then there will be a miracle.”

Let’s look a little closer to home regarding the predictions of this report. The growth in fossil fuel consumption is expected to occur primarily in other areas of the world. That means that a large portion of the 75% of the energy that the U.S. currently purchases from the aforementioned kindly foreign nations could well be needed by someone else. This brings us back to item 3 of plan “B.”

Can the U.S. become energy independent? Of course we can. All we have to do is stop driving, stop paving, stop making plastic, stop flying, stop trains and trucking, and live in mud huts.

We could also start drilling every National Park in the U.S. We could also drill in the Artic National Wildlife Reserve and in every ocean surrounding this country. And in the end, we would still have the same problem; exponential growth is impossible.

Of course, doing all of the above will make very little difference except to put off the inevitable for four more years while the politicians make up new campaign promises. But, in keeping with tradition, putting off reality is in fact what we have been doing since the design for our economy began. Like those little wind up toys that take off across the room, run into the wall, beat their head on the wall for a little while and then turn around and head full steam for another wall.

It’s not a question of whether we will run out of resources, and especially oil. It’s a matter of when we run short and how bad it will be. My belief is that it will be soon and extremely bad.

 
Comments
1.
On June 26th, 2008 at 11:37 am, Billyb said:

Let’s see now; an economic policy based solely on exponential growth requires us to:
1) Increase our money supply on an hourly basis
2) Allow illegals, legals and any other breathing humans to cross our borders at ever increasing numbers
3) Encourages us to make extremely flawed trade agreements, like NAFTA & WTO; that ships millions of American jobs over seas and increases fossil fuel consumption aat an obscene rate.
4) Keeps us from persuing an economy based on sustainability; that would help with population control, oil consumption and alternative energy technology.
5) Creates an atmosphere for rapidly increasing fuel and food prices.
6) Keeps erroding our freedoms in the process of attempting quick fix solutions to impossible situations.
7) etc., etc., etc……. (you could fill a book with the remainder of this list)

Yep, I can see some validity in your opening paragraph, Mike. But many of us don’t think this applies to us because our beliefs and trust are in our old reliable color TV sets. Yes, sir, if it is on TV it has to be true!!! -bb

2.
On June 26th, 2008 at 1:11 pm, WmA said:

The CEO of PP&G said that Obama, and Clinton shouldn’t talk about the gloomy economy.. Seems as long as nobody talks about it, the problem doesn’t exist ??

So, a good thing to do, is to lie to the people, and a bad thing to do, is to tell the truth..

Who wudda thunk..?? WmA..

3.
On June 26th, 2008 at 2:59 pm, Mike Folkerth said:

At this hour the Dow Jones closed down 348 points and oil hit $140 per barrel.

Housing continues to decline and most of our state governments are bleeding red ink. Our growth oriented economy may well have hit a very solid wall.

General Motors hit a low today that equals their stock price in 1955. Ford stock could be bought for under $5.00 at one point today.

Not saying these things certainly wouldn’t make them untrue or have any less impact on Middle America. What is happening is very real whether the politicians lie or not, of course they chose to lie in order to become elected. America admires a good liar.

4.
On June 26th, 2008 at 8:51 pm, Greg said:

Virtually all government statistics that relate to the economy are fiction, and much of the US population is oblivious to Peak Oil and Global Warming. Even if this was not the case, we are still thirty to forty years too late to avoid a major economic meltdown .

I have run out of time trying to warn passengers on the USS Titanic who are still singing, dancing and drinking. Most aren’t listening, and don’t want me ruining their cruise with all of this “negative” talk anyway.

As a result, am now shifting my energy to building my own life boat in case she goes down. Is anyone else doing the same?

At the same time, I don’t want to jump into a dingy at sea, not if the boat can still limp into harbor. I am not that young anymore, I don’t need it to keep floating more than 20-30 years - tops. But I don’t think in her current condition it will stay afloat that long. So much for the “golden” years.

5.
On June 26th, 2008 at 9:33 pm, Mike Folkerth said:

Greg,

Lots of the readers on this site and certainly myself are building our own life rafts.

Debt remains the enemy for most, many of who thought of their home as an investment rather than a home. As the values continue to decline and in many instances the payment is rising, literally millions of Americans are sinking into insolvency.

I find that it helps immensely to seek out others who hold the same beliefs as yourself and plan together. There are many, many ways to continue to live the good life long after the non-believers have checked in at the poor house.

Scaling back is not only a good thing to do, it’s a brilliant and necessary action to take.

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