America’s Greatest Problem; The Misunderstanding of Exponential Growth:
Exponential growth (or geometric growth) is growth by a fixed rate, such as 5% per year. This is opposed to linear growth which is growth by a fixed number. For example, if a family consumes a loaf of bread every week, they would consume 52 loaves of bread per year, year in and year out. While over time, the consumption of the family would grow linearly, or on a cumulative basis, their annual consumption would remain constant.
The first year our family would consume 52 loaves, the second year 52 loaves, for a cumulative total of 104 loaves and then 156 in the third year and so on. This is much different than the U.S. economic system of exponential growth, which grows geometrically or in proportion to it current size.
Should we have applied exponential growth to our loaves of bread and factored a growth rate of just 4% per year, after 17.5 years the family would be using 2 loaves of bread per day. In another 17.5 years, 4 loaves of bread per day and so on to a point that over a given period of time there would not be enough bread in the world to fill the demand.
After reading the above example, how many of you thought, “Seventeen and half years is a long time to double?” It is my belief that the total and complete disconnect from time is the culprit that allows us to base our economy on an impossible mathematical foundation; that of exponential growth. Any exponential growth calculation, when applied to a tangible resource in a finite environment, is a model only valid for a temporary period of time.
The other possibility for our mystifying acceptance of the impossibility of exponential growth (other than misunderstanding the element of time), would be that we view the time that the growth scheme will work as being sufficient to last through our personal life span.
Could it be that as a whole, we simply don’t care what happens to those who will come after us? And that we justify our greed and inaction under the thin veil of “they” will find a way? I’ll leave that for you to decide.
Our system of economics in the U.S. is in fact based on exponential growth. Every politician from small town mayor to the president of the United States promises growth. Not linear growth, but exponential growth.
When our government bean counters say that the economy is growing by 4% annually, they are referring to 4% of the current economy. Or, that our overall economy is now 104% of what is was last year. This promised growth will continue only until such time that it reaches an impenetrable barrier such as 100% depletion of a given critical resource, for instance…oil. Or, the inability of resources such as farm land to produce sufficient food for the exponentially growing population of the world.
We won’t slowly run out of resources; we will suddenly run out of resources. Technology has allowed us to harvest and consume resources in an exponential manner to keep pace with our exponential growth. Technology may well continue to advance, however, the resources that technology is applied to will continue to decline. You can write that on the wall.
As an example, modern underground coal miners by using the “advancing long wall system” can mine more coal in one shift, than the same number of old time miners could mine in one year! We are apparently in a hurry to reach the end. Once more, pack light, it’s gonna be a short trip.
Our system of “compounding debt capitalism” by its very design, insures both constant inflation of the money supply, constant population growth and exponential consumption of finite resources; all of which are mathematically and physically impossible in a finite world. And that is a very bad thing for those whose future is based on “The Biggest Lie Ever Believed,” the lie that “exponential growth is good.”
If you find that you’re on the wrong train, get off at the next stop. It makes getting back home a much shorter trip. ─ Mike Folkerth
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Exponential Growth is one hungry animal. Our government’s refusal to reverse this policy is worse than any lie they could possibly tell us. I believe our government has also been lulled into a false sense of security, believing we still have ample time to come up with a plan. But like you say, it is not until the end of the exponential function that all hell breaks lose. Like the pond lily example we discussed a while back. If the pond lily doubles everyday. It will take 30 days to fill the pond with them. The kicker is that on day 28, two days before the pond becomes completely filled, the pond lilies only cover 25% of the pond, leaving one to believe that there was ample time to deal with the problem. So it is with everything that operates via the exponential function. Math is not always humane.
The carrying capacity for planet earth is estimated to be somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 - 2 billion people. We are at least 4.5 billion humans heavy in this area right now, with no plan in place to correct the number in the future.
Peak Oil was reached 38 years ago in the US. And in 2005 globally.
We will be increasingly importing more oil from now on, until other countries begin suffering from shortages in the near future due to production downturns. This will create great unrest globally.
The price of oil will continue to trend upward until total depletion.
The high oil prices will cause greater inflation as time passes.
US oil net energy could fall to “0″ by as early as 2022.
When this happens, whether it is 2022 or 2032, food production will drop sharply and quickly, due to the lack of fuel for equipment and oil based chemicals to fertilize crops for maximum harvest, which will lead to massive soil sterilization. Transportation for food products will be at a stand still. Massive world wide famine will set in and resolve the population problems.
There are many other ramifications if we choose to wait. The list is long, and I could go on, but my point is that, if we choose to sit and wait for our elected representatives, this procrastination will (not maybe) be something you and I can barely imagine at this time.
If our government and it’s people began acting on these issues today, I do not believe we could make the required changes without moderate to heavy pain. If we persist with our present attitudes and inactivity, for even a few more years, we will have no options left to us. -bb
This also will help put the monumental task we have before us into perspective.
In one year the entire world produces about 1 cubic mile of oil. It would take 50 years of energy production by each alternative energy source below to accumulate the equivalent energy in 1 cubic mile of oil that the world uses now in one year.
Hydro Electric
Nuclear
Coal Fired
Wind Turbine
Solar Panels
If US oil net energy did fall to zero fourteen years from now, we better have many alternative energy sources up and running. Not in the infancy stages we are at today. Solar photovoltaic alone only procuces .04% of our planets energy at this time. It appears we should have started just a little bit sooner; maybe 30-35 years sooner.
I believe that grasping the impossibility of exponential growth is so frightening to most of our population that they simply refuse to allow their minds to go there, and instead, brand those who bring this unsavory news to the table as nut jobs.
Albert Einstein may have said it best, “There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity and I’m not certain about the former.”
I want to add this statement from Professor Albert Bartlett, University of Colorado, Boulder.
“Now, you are important people because you can think. If there’s anything that is in short supply in the world today, it’s people who are willing to think. So here’s a challenge. Can you think of any problem, on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long term solution is in any demonstratable way, aided, assisted, or advanced by having larger populations in our local levels, state levels, national level, or global level? Can you think of anything that can get better if we crowd more people into our cities, our towns, into our state, our nation, or on this earth?
That kind of says it all, doesn’t it?
A good video to see in 9 parts is “The Most IMPORTANT Video You’ll Ever See”
http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D
RinCa,
Thank you for posting the link to Professor Bartlet’s lecture. I recommend that everyone take the time to watch this presentation, it will hopefully change your entire perspective of our economy.
If we don’t understand the problem, we can’t address the solution.
Considering the ramifications of exponential growth is not a pleasant subject. However, ignoring the same will make it no less true.
Hey Mike, the problem with estimating growth of food, energy, population, and many other necessary items whether you use linear or exponential logic makes little difference since the laws of reality(or Murphy) will screw up anything. Natural or un-natural forces like floods, tornadoes , plagues, terrorists, government, etc. will mess with any plans by mice or men. The latest example I have noticed is the government enhanced use of corn for ethanol which caused less wheat to be grown and then we have floods over most of Iowa along with gas prices going astronomic. I would have liked to have seen someone predict 12 - 18 months ago what the price of wheat, corn, and gas would be. There are so many factors at work that forcasting almost anything becomes a black science. A dart board stands as good a chance as any formulas do. Even scarier most of our corporations are expected by Wall Street to match their yearly predictions. Anything higher or lower than their forecast and the stocks suffer as do stockholders and employees. What a screwed up system. How the heck did we get here? Have yourself a good one Mike!
Mr. Hayes, there have been educated projections for years. The government does not pass them on to the public however. It may cost a vote for them.
2007 -$3.00
2008 - $4.17
2009 - $4.66
2010 - $7.22
2011 - $11.21
2012 - $17.40
2013 - $24.19
20.14 - $33.63
2015 - $46.77
2016 - $65.02
2022 - $469.76
I did not list them all, but you get thepicture. Our government was given these projections back in 2003. They are a little off, but not by much. -bb
The idea that anything tangible can grow at an exponential rate is insane. But then so is unbridled capitalism that does not take into account that the resources necessary for long term sustainability are finite.
It seems so simple to understand yet so difficult to explain. I hope that we don’t wait until the explanation is delivered by Mother Nature, she can be harsh when perturbed.
Hey Billyb, I realize that there have been projections for quite some time. That was my point. No matter how many projections are made they are pretty much useless due to all of the variables that come into play. This is where I prefer the Communist(and others) 5 year plan. Instead of guessing at what will be you are aiming at what you would like to be. It is a target that allows some flexibility in obtaining it. Projections, whether educated or not, are bad because too many people try to tie their investments and production to these guesses and more people suffer for the effort. It is kind of the difference between dense fog and a light haze. Have yourself a good one Billy!
Michael,
I remember when “Chainsaw” Al Dunlap said, “Show me a five year plan and I’ll show you a plan that won’t work.” He was referring to exactly what you are saying, that variables get in the way of the best laid plans.
However, the exponential growth plan won’t work regardless of planning and forecasting. We live in a finite world where infinite consumption is impossible.
Hey Mike, The lack of planning or “controlling” what is going on is hurting us very much. I am not saying we have to clamp down “1984″ style but to leave everything in our economy to random chance is part of our problems. If all of our farms decided to grow only eggplants just think of the mess we all would be in(unless of course you loved eggplant). This has happened with corn when farms decided to grow corn for ethanol and not for food which in turn stop a great deal of wheat production. This is one of the problems that occurs when government trys to control a few things and then they can never get out because they never considered the whole system they affected. They just go on and on making changes to one area without considering everything it will affect, Then after they make that change they make another to counteract the bad effects the first change made. This is why I feel there should be master plans set up with the entire system considered. Naturally it would be best if the “experts” in the affected fields made the plan and not our government. A plan or control would help keep the variants effects more under control and therefore there would be less deviation. I hope my explanation came out correct. You have a good one Mike!
Michael,
Your explanation is exactly what is occurring. We have a system that is out of balance and mathematically impossible to continue.
So, government, rather than telling the truth, tries to fix the broken sector which simply transfers the problem to another area.
At some point and time the exponential factor will become so great that nothing that anyone can do at that point and time will stop the crisis.
In other words, we have planning, we are planning for a depression…and I might say it is working out quite well.