Mike Folkerth - King of Simple

Western Colorado’s own Humorist / Economist

And You Thought the U.S. Had Trouble:

Good Morning Middle America, your King of Simple News is on the air.

I keep focusing on the problems of the U.S. economy and to give all of you a much needed break, I’ll focus on someone else’s problems today; if only to assure you that we aren’t the only idiots in the world.

As most eyes focus on the demise of the world’s largest economy (that would be us), the world’s second largest economy is feeling the pain. Japan is in trouble…again.

Who would have ever put it together that when the world’s largest economy slowed down their purchases from the world’s second largest economy that it would cause them to also slow down? I suppose they used some of those NASA computers to work that one out.

Japan has more problems than Brittney Spears. They live on a bunch of islands that are smaller than California with a population 3.5 times greater than that of the Golden State. Yuck! The population density is 12 times greater than the U.S.

Some 80% of Japan’s landmass is covered by mountains; mountains with volcano’s. Japan has 10% of all the active volcanos in the world. Oh joy.

It would seem that Japan has about everything that a person could want, except oil and minerals of which they have somewhere around none.

Japan is the second largest importer of oil in the world and that oil comes primarily from the Middle East. In the event that some of you haven’t seen the news in the last 2,000 years, the Middle East is somewhat unstable.

Can it get any worse? Well sure it can, Japan also imports most of their food. On a calorie basis, the island nation accounts for less than 40% of their own food production.

Japan decided after the war that the old cliché “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em,” was sound advice and jumped square in the middle of unchecked capitalism. They adopted the buy now and pay later plan that seemed to be working so well for Americans. “Seemed to be” was the key phrase in the last sentence.

While the Japanese are said to have exceptional math skills, there is no sign of applying those skills to their long term economic plan. Yes, exactly like the U.S.

As if all the issues listed above are not problematic enough, Japan has a population problem. With 127 million folks crowded onto their formerly described islands…it isn’t enough; population that is.

Ya see, Japan decided to be as dumb as the U.S. and to put the bill on the tab for the kids to pay. Where they thought that they would put these kids, I have no idea, but it was in fact the plan. However, when the birthrate in Japan fell to 1.25 kids per couple, it busted up the game. The replacement team was dwindling.

In a nation where the lack of landmass, natural resources, and food were major problems, a shrinking population could seem to the moderately sane to be a good thing. But the sane seldom visit the nations of exponential growth capitalism, so let’s look at some of the possible fixes that are recommended to head off Japan’s demise.

You will probably be shocked to hear that growth has been suggested. Yes, encouraging women to have more babies is one solution; cash is being plied in this area as we speak (I’m not making this up).

Another grand idea is to loosen up on the immigration laws and allow a whole lot more foreign folks to join the party. That approach is certainly working well for the U.S of A.

Yet another sterling idea is to raise the age for retirement so that those old people can keep on working and paying those taxes. Of course none of these ideas will work, but then, neither will ours.

And you thought we had trouble.

 
Comments
1.
On August 13th, 2008 at 10:48 am, Greg said:

Watch places like Japan and Hawaii, what happens there may give us some insight into the problems we will face later.

Both have limited resources and large populations. Their current life style is only possible because of cheap oil. As Mike noted, they won’t be able to “grow their way out of it.” It will be instructive to see what happens.

2.
On August 13th, 2008 at 11:17 am, Mike Folkerth said:

Gregg,

You make a good point. Much has been written regarding Japan being the first to experience a decline due to their flawed model (much the same model as the U.S.)

As we watch the decline of Japan we will get a lesson on what is in store for the U.S.

The U.S. has staved off our imminent mathematical collapse with liberal legal immigration and by encouraging illegal immigration. We have also borrowed well into the future in regard to natural resources.

Ah yes, too many goldfish in the bowl and not enough water.

3.
On August 13th, 2008 at 9:04 pm, Gila said:

There is little we can do but prepare. Helping to educate our friends and family so they also can participate in this process is also something we can do that is positive.

I really do not believe we have the intelligence to act in time to aviod severe pain, prior to 2024. That action would have to start within the next two or three years.

I am excited in a sick kind of way to be able to watch the exponential function play out on our present economic policy. It will be very interesting watching the reaction from all the non-participants in our country. As everyone begins to realize that what they have helped to create is virtually irreversible, the denial will be short lived as terror sets in. The infrastructure was in place for progress back in the 1800s for progress and the possibilty of sustainable development. The population was in check and natural resources were abundant. Now with earths population at 2 1/2 times a sustainable level and natural resources dwindling fast due to our policy of exponential growth (which also promotes rapid population growth) our options are shrinking. The end of our culture as we know it will happen very rapidly as Billyb pointed out with the old pond lily parable.

Intriguing, exciting, sad? Probably, but it will happen. We have lost our will.

4.
On August 14th, 2008 at 7:27 am, Mike Folkerth said:

Gila,

On your last comment, “We have lost our will,” may well be true. But consider life as we have known it for the past 18 years or so. The average person in the U.S. was doing quite well. Why would we have wanted it to be any different?

Most people don’t understand that our underlying economy is impossible to continue, just like cheap gas was impossible to continue.

Our hope is that the pain of reality will reinstate our will to make the right choices.

Thanks for the comment.

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