Housing, A Horror Movie; Part 2
Good Morning Middle America, your King of Simple News is on the air.
Back in the dark ages of 2007, I ran the following column and with the news headlines today reading, “Housing Starts Fall to 17 Year Low, Home Depot Profits Fall 24%, Large U.S. Bank Collapse Seen Ahead, and Wholesale Prices Surge At Rates Not Seen Since 1981,” I thought it was a good time for a rerun.
Housing; A Horror Movie:
Shall we talk about housing, or have you had enough? I subscribe to the “I’ve never had enough of nothing” discipline, so housing it is.
We’ll take a leisurely stroll down (way down) housing’s declining lane today, and then, tomorrow we’ll visit the local shopping center and take the pulse of our next epidemic, commercial property.
While Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Bernanke, and Mr. Bush (just a few standouts in a cast of thousands) assured us some months ago that housing would make a soft landing, it now appears that these guys were…well, lying like a rug. Alan ‘Cash’ Greenspan has in all fairness said, “I don’t know what the heck happened, it was alright when I left.”
I suspicion that ‘Cash’ Greenspan had one of those little chemistry sets when he was a kid. You know the ones where if you mixed up the right concoction, the whole thing blew to smithereens. Where else would one get the early training necessary to engineer monetary policy that could explode an entire nation?
I happily point out that 8th grade math and basic physics are apparently not requirements for becoming the Federal Reserve Chairman (or President); and, in Mr. Greenspan’s case, the holder of that position for 112 years.
In his new book, “The Age of Turbulence; and how I created this whole mess all by myself,” Alan Greenspan makes it clear, that through his own brilliance and hard work, “I have successfully mired Middle Americans hopelessly in debt.”
In June 2003, the then head of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, lowered the federal lending rate to 1%. A number not seen since 1958, when ‘Cash’ himself, was a young 65.
The idea here was to revive an economy where the average American had obviously failed to borrow enough money to replace the staggering loses of our government exporting our economy to China, Mexico, India, Bangladesh and Timbuktu, while at the same time importing something over a million new immigrant job seekers each and every year. Sure, I don’t see why that won’t work.
Since the U.S. had wisely jettisoned our only sustainable areas of commerce off onto the unsuspecting third world folks, an unsustainable model was necessarily chosen to strengthen and grow our economy until such time (as planned since Mr. Greenspan’s childhood) the whole thing blew to smithereens. Housing seemed a reasonable path that would fiscally and stalwartly propel America at high speed down a dead end road.
And so, the housing rush began with no down, low down, buy now and pay later deals and we all lived happily ever after; or, until after Mr. Greenspan retired, whichever came first.
Residential shelter (often mistakenly referred to as “the best investment that you’ll ever make”), is absolutely, positively, unequivocally (as an economic basis), unsustainable. Ya see, this class of commerce is considered “durable goods”, or “unlike computers.”
Houses last a long time. Once you buy one, you don’t need another one for a long time. Once everyone who can afford one, has one, the millions of people who are employed in some facet of housing, don’t have work for a long time.
To add to the pending misery, a few thoughtless people each and every day go off to that big retirement community in the sky and their homes become available in order that their heirs can take a trip to Disneyland. These untimely events further muddy the inventory waters.
We have now reached the point in the predicable plot that is referred to as “Market Saturation,” a horror film produced by Alan ‘Cash’ Greenspan and Directed by George ‘Badlands’ Bush, which is showing in a neighborhood near you.

Does it feel a little scary, Mike, when your common sense takes on the aura of clairvoyance?
It seems our elected officials still cannot identify the core problem for our economic woes of today. They are beginning to address numerous symptoms along with other notables like T.Boone Pickens.
I cannot express the importance of addressing the core (base) problem immediately. Again, it will make absolutely no difference (like in “0″) what else we do, if we do not immedialtely address our fatal attraction to exponential growth as our sole economic policy. If we allow this to continue, there will be never be a recovery when the exponential function plays out. And that never is like, forever. It does not have to get that bad.
But here we are on pins and needles waiting to see who our two top dogs are going to choose for their VP. We, none of us, should care anything about either candidate, let alone their VP selection. These two have been and continue to be a large part of the problem.
It does not matter if you are democrat, republican, independent, city dweller, country bumpkin, white, black, blue or whatever. We don’t have to agree on many issues, or even like each other and this part has not changed much throughout history. But we used to be educated enough to identify when our government was beginning to drift away from justice. But we chose to look the other way, if in fact we have been educated citizens for the past 30 years or so; just because things seemed as if they were working in our favor for the most part. Had we really done the foot work back then, it would have become obvious, immedidately, that where we are today and where we are headed from here was inevitable. I doubt we would have let our government steer us into this mess, had we done our part? What are we going to do about it now?
I figured I would just turn on the nightly news and see what our talented officials have to offer. I suppose there are more accurate ways to gather the important information I need, but this just fits my lifestyle. Then I reckon I will go ahead and vote for one of the two presidential dudes, as soon as I can get an idea who may have the best chance of winning. After that, I’ll just sit back and let the best man take care of all my problems for me. Yep, that’s my plan. -bb
Billy B,
You are absolutely correct that none of us should give a damn what the two front runners are doing.
And also, you are correct that it won’t make bit of difference what else we do if we don’t address exponential growth.