Best Prepare; For Change We Will:
Good Friday morning all of you thinkers out there; your King of Simple News is on the air.
I want to say again that the comments on yesterday’s article were excellent and very much appreciated. Understanding why our economy is not working is paramount to taking individual action aimed at continuing to live a good and enjoyable life.
I have stated for years now that acting on an individual basis while trying to effect cultural change is my chosen path. Government is doing 80 MPH going north in the south bound lane and there is precious little that we can do to persuade them to turn around before the crash.
Having the understanding of how this mess will play out, how we can best prepare as individuals, and how we can build a new model from the ashes of the crash site, has always been my ultimate objective.
Remaining a skeptic of mine and other claims that the U.S. has reached zenith for positive growth is one thing. Failing to take any preventative actions in the event that this dour prediction is true, is quite another subject.
We need to be cognizant of the world outside of our own neighborhoods. In a new report out today from a U.N. agency, the people in the world who are going hungry now exceeds a Billion for the first time in history. Preparing against that possibility within our own families and communities should be a priority.
We have reached the point that individual actions are the only cushion that one will have against the continual application of failed government policies.
In short, we need to live in this shaky world as best we can until such time that the pain felt by the citizenry reaches the point of demanding sweeping economic change. Today, just over 50% of the people still approve of Mr. Obama. Yet, at the same time, some 70% say that they are concerned about the government intervention into the private economy. When those 70% feel enough pain to be sure that we can’t spend our way out of debt…the worm will turn.
There is no way to save everyone, of that I’m confident. The U.S. cannot create real sustainable jobs for the legions of the unemployed, underemployed, and never been employed. The latter sector is hiding in plain sight and represents those who have entered the job market for the first time, failed to find employment in an economy that has shed some 13,000,000 jobs from the highs, and are not counted in the government statistics.
When the U.S. hit bottom in the last severe recession of the 80s, it was six long years later when unemployment finally fell below 5%. My honest opinion is that the U.S. may never decline to 5% unemployment again.
In the words of M. King Hubbert; “Most employment now is merely pushing paper around. The actual work needed to keep a stable society running is a very small fraction of available manpower.”
That is why I constantly state that doing something truly useful to society at large should be on all of our short lists of things-to-do-today. Useful skills and labor never go out of style. Often commenter, Dave Eriqat said, “What will enable individuals to escape this dour state of affairs is to be resourceful and find a marketable niche to exploit, such as producing something unique on a small scale.”
I agree with Dave, the commerce of tomorrow will be very different than that which we experienced in the recent past. I do however believe that the distant past and clearly understanding how the majority of people on earth currently live, will give us some clues as how this whole thing will shake out.
What do you see our world and our U.S. commerce evolving to? We must remember that over our short history, the citizenry has shifted from a sparse rural agriculture based society, to predominantly densely populated city dwellers.
Give me your thoughts. I will in the mean time begin to define my convictions (with your help) for the necessity of adopting a steady state economy that is devoid of compounding interest and exponential growth.
Subscribe to this blog
Not to sound like a Luddite, but technology has created an environment where work is increasingly unnecessary. Society has yet to catch up to this paradigm shift, we still feel you have to work a 40 hour week at least to earn your keep, when that is untrue.
High intelligence careers are still needed, but the vast majority of work previously done by the average man (Farming, manufacture) can be done by machine. So what is the average man to do to provide worth to society?
Technology has outrun humanity, the old models are no longer valid.
This is the season where the “Jack of all Trades; Master of None”, people will excel.
Do you know how to garden?
Do you know how to can foods?
Are you capable of processing wild game?
Can you repair electrical systems?
Can you fix plumbing problems?
Do you know how to build structures?
Can you shoe a horse?
Can you milk a cow / goat?
Do you know how to put up hay without a baler?
Can you repair automobiles, and farm equipment?
Are you an accomplished muscian?
Etc., etc., etc.
These and many more skills will be very handy in our coming future. A combination of these skills and bartering for skills you do not possess is also a good combination.
Handyman businesses, day labor pools, retailing durable goods, sewing and alteration businesses are a few examples of things that will not die out during the coming years.
Once we work through the loss of our many years collection of things, this could be enjoyable. -bb
I am doing a lot of trainings on food preservation. I can envision a business where folks without skills or equipment will bring me their produce and I will preserve it on shares or for barter. We have a large house. If my children don’t end up back at home with mom and dad, I would consider letting out the upstairs apartment in return for labor for the things that will get harder for my DH and I to manage as we age. Things like getting in the wood and getting in the garden require a strong back. A young person might be happy for the opportunity to learn while eating well.
William Henry said, “Technology has outrun humanity, the old models are no longer valid. So what is the average man to do to provide worth to society?”
Great statement and you are absolutely correct. As far as what the average man will do; we now have 13,000,000 Americans (the actual number is more like 20 Million) unemployed. And that is why I stated that everyone can’t be saved.
The U.S. has continued to pursue an impossible economic model for 39 years after it failed!!
Once we could no longer absorb our own output (when our exponential domestic growth model reached zenith) we were ill prepared to become an export nation due to our elevated cost of production.
When I talk about paradigm shifts, your comments are exactly what I’m referring to.
The basis for our economic underpinnings are no longer valid.
The U.S. has tried for years to bridge the gap between the remainder of the world and our own standard of living by requiring greater production and working longer hours. That too has now failed.
I also agree with your comment regarding the false belief that working 40 hours per week is necessary to earn our keep…it’s not true. Many people will explain that they are successful because they work 60 and 80 hours per week and fault those who don’t. I wish them the best.
The population increases, the labor demands decrease. Pretty simple math at this level.
In a free market, capital will flow where it’s most productive. Right now, it’s China and India.
It was thought that the most labor intensive, and least rewarding jobs will be the first to move to underdeveloped nations. That was true.
Computers have changed everything. Anyone, anywhere can become very proficient with computers. Hence, even high technology and highly skilled jobs in America are at risk.
Many leading American companies are planning to move much of their corporate operations to Asia. It makes sense. They build stuff there, and future market growth is there also.
So it should come as no surprise when Cisco stated that “we want to be a Chinese company.” And they are planning to move its headquarters to China within 10 years. How many other US companies will do the same?
How about Boeing? Yes, they already build a lot of parts in China. But what is stopping them from moving all of its operations to China. The future US market is very small. Americans will never use air travel as heavy as we used it this past decade (thanks, credit bubble). Most of Boeing’s orders are coming from the BRIC nations.
What about GM? After bailing them out, are they grateful enough to remain in the US? Nope. They plan on importing more cars from China. What’s good for GM is good for America, right?
And good ol’ Harley Davidson. Most of the parts already come form China, they only assemble it here. They are selling more motorcycles in Asia than in America now. Why bother assembling motorcycles here?
In the next ten years, as America’s GDP gradually slides down hill, US companies will have to find cheaper sources of labor to make a profit. They will also need to find new consumers since Americans are cutting back. The US govt cannot replace these jobs with govt jobs fast enough.
Billyb is right. People need to develop skills that can’t be exported away. Those jobs that can be exported will be exported.
Another thing to pay atttention to at this stage is the fact that all these companies relocating to China and elsewhere are only perpetuating the myth for a few more years (25 yr. max.), until EROI puts a halt to most all industry. Many companies are pursuing alternative energy development at this time, but none are addressing this industry agressively and this is what is required if we are to have a hope of a future as a developed nation; a developed planet. -bb
Jeremy Rifkin wrote a book a few years ago entitled, The End of Work. He said that with modern technology we don’t need anything remotely approaching full employment to produce all of the goods and services we need to survive. Unfortunately, no one took him seriously and we never came to terms with the problem.
However, I don’t recall him mentioning that modern technology is powered by fossil fuels. As long as we have cheap fossil fuels, we will have high unemployment. However, once oil and natural gas become expensive and stay that way, human labor will once again be needed. The problem is that the new economy won’t support seven billion people.
Living in a new low-tech state won’t be the problem, getting there is. We won’t go from almost seven billion people and a technology dependent civilization, to 1-2 billion population and a low-tech civilization without big problems.
Once oil output begins to decline; in perhaps as little as another year or two, we will have show-stopping problems. According to people who know something about oil production, we may have no more than eighteen months before that happens. That’s not much time to prepare.
Unfortunately, we are still living in our current economy and the “new” one can’t take hold until the current one moves out of the way. Not knowing when it will arrive, or what it will look like, makes preparation difficult. Leave your options open and be flexible.
Wow,
So much information pouring out and so many points to consider.
Les said, “In a free market, capital will flow where it’s most productive.” We need to add that, “in a global market, money from one country will flow to cheaper labor in another regardless of the obvious harm done to their own citizenry.”
In my book, chapter 10 is titled “People or Profits,” and deals with the total fixation that capitalism places on profits without giving consideration to the impact on people or the sustainability of the model.
Les also pointed out that future U.S. markets will be much smaller and the emerging markets will represent the growth. Very true Les, the U.S. represents slightly less than 5% of the people on earth. However, ALL growth will be constrained by physical space and resource depletion. There is simply not enough to go around as emerging nations gain prosperity.
Kathy and Billyb talk about returning to old skill sets that will become helpful (if not necessary), in the near future. Having some useful skills is always in season.
Billy b and Greg point out the depletion of global oil. Greg says that prices will skyrocket long before depletion…and they will.
Billy b points out the conundrum of EROEI (energy returned on energy invested). Once the fulcrum is reached, it matters little how much oil remains in the earth. More energy is used to extract, transport, and refine the product than the output of the oil. At that point, the fat lady has sung.
Bobcat made these good comments and they got caught in the spam trap…sorry Bobcat, here they are;
On June 18th, 2009 at 7:19 pm, Bobcat said:
In his recent Counterpunch column titled, “The Wheels are Coming Off the Recovery Program”, http://www.counterpunch.org/lindorff06112009.html, Dave Lindorff put it most succinctly. “The news media continue to tout shamelessly whatever signs of recovery they can detect, leaving all those whose personal finances are falling apart to feel like it’s just their problem.”
Mike Shedlock (Mish) pointed out that the dip is due to extended jobless benefits running out and this will soon translate into more foreclosures and credit card defaults.
But the spin doctors will surely take advantage of this delay to proclaim a turnaround. I’m reminded of a Despair poster. http://despair.com/despair.html
“It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.”
In the words of M. King Hubbert; “Most employment now is merely pushing paper around. The actual work needed to keep a stable society running is a very small fraction of available manpower.”
William Henry said, “Technology has outrun humanity, the old models are no longer valid. So what is the average man to do to provide worth to society?”
Dr Hubbert goes on to say that the paradigm representing the William Henry quote used here is precisely one of the ideas we must dispense with…we ALL get something for nothing regardless of how “useful” our employment may be—which is why he advocated shorter working hours and a completely revamped concept of compensation.
starskeptic,
Man is an inefficient engine that cannot possibly return to our planet what we take out over our lifespans.
However, the degree to which we “ALL” get something for nothing is point of considerable debate. A lengthy debate.
Marion King Hubbert died in 1989 and up to the day of his death he continued to state; “There can be no possible solutions to the world’s problems that do not involve stabilization of the world’s population.”
Hubbert also stated in the mid 70s that in his opinion, the world was seriously overpopulated for a balanced ecosystem.
The U.S. has instead followed the opposite path and pursued growth of population as our economic flagship. Therefore, we have violated the first principal in Hubbert’s theoretical “new economy,” terribly imbalanceing the possibility.
Yes, in fact Dr Hubbert advocated for negative population…
“However, the degree to which we “ALL” get something for nothing is point of considerable debate. A lengthy debate.”
however –this is irrelevant to the point I was making — which is that Dr Hubbert would find all this discussion about “useful” employment beside the point he made about ALL getting something for nothing (which was taken directly from the web page dedicated to him).
I’ve enjoyed reading the blog and comments very much. Except that it scares me silly.