Show-Stoppers; Conclusion
Good Morning all of you out-of-the-box thinkers out there; your King of Simple News is on the air.
Today, I’m posting the conclusion to my 7 part Show-Stopper series. Like Porky Pig said at the end the Warner Bros. Cartoons, “I believe that’s all folks.”
SHOW-STOPPERS
By Mike Folkerth © 2009
CONCLUSION:
The points that I have throughout the various Show-Stopper’s are all tied to one common denominator; exponential growth in a finite world is both physically and mathematically impossible.
The consumption necessary to sustain our current exponential growth-based economy, has since 1970, been largely supported by exponential debt accumulation. That debt is then continually driven higher by the inclusion of compounding interest.
No amount of political and social manipulation produced by mortal man will change the above stated facts. Growth has natural limits and the laws of natural physics will prevail. As population rises above the optimum level, the per-capita share of wealth and resources are diminished resulting in a reduced standard of living. This diminishing share of the American pie will be disproportionately levied against Middle America.
At the time of this writing, Japan is paying their non-native foreign workers to leave their country with the caveat that those who accept the payment will never again apply for work in Japan. Japan may well be the first industrialized nation that is forced to abandon the false foundation of exponential growth.
Is there a way out that does not include returning to pre-industrial standards? The short answer is yes for the United States and Canada if we act prior to total resource depletion and unmanageable population levels. Many people, including myself, believe that human population in many parts of our world is already well above sustainable levels.
That being said, perhaps the only feasible path to a non-catastrophic future was best stated by the American Geophysicist, M. King Hubbert. While Dr. Hubbert is best remembered for his accurate predictions of peak oil, I believe that even more brilliance can be seen in his following statements.
“We are not in the position we were in 1929-30 with regard to the future. Then the physical system was ready to roll. This time it is not. We are in a crisis in the evolution of human society. It’s unique to both human and geologic history. It has never happened before and it can’t possibly happen again. You can only use oil once. You can only use metals once. Soon all the oil is going to be burned and all the metals mined and scattered.”
“We have the necessary technology. All we have to do is completely overhaul our culture and find an alternative to money. Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to use what we know.” [end quote].
I must be honest regarding my personal belief regarding the U.S. voluntarily returning to balance. We will not. We will pursue our failed growth model to the point of total collapse.
Only a catastrophic event of epic proportion will alter our long established pattern of electing our leadership from the social science sector who promise the physically impossible; for it is the impossible that we most crave.
Therefore, if I am correct, or perhaps more pertinent in this case, if mathematics are correct, personal choices will become your only defense against our continuing incompetent leadership.
When choosing a career field, do something useful with your life and do something beneficial for society. Perhaps a caveat to the former statement is in order; “Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of other’s opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.” ― Steve Jobs
Live simple, live free, and live well.
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I don’t believe there is any chance that the leaders, and many of the empowered people of this country don’t know that our economic system is doomed for exactly the reasons Mike has written about..
But, they continue down the same path.. I don’t understand why.. It’s hard to imagine anybody so short sighted, and greedy.. But, it’s hard to imagine many things that wall street does..
I agree with Mike.. Our government will not change, so we are doomed.. We are going to have to play the hand we are dealt.. Make the best out of a bad situation.. I suppose us older people are the lucky ones.. We can hope it will last long enough…..
WmA..
If there is any doubt in your mind about the gravity of our situation, follow the attached link. Coincidentally, it appeared on The Oil Drum today.
This article reinforces Mike’s message about exponential growth. It is a bit long and technical; however, it supports his thesis completely. It isn’t just energy, but minerals, metals, and as one author called it, “peak everything.”
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5559#more
If you ever wondered why we are in the mess we are in today, read this short article. In a nutshell, we are a nation of scientific illiterates. Worse yet, most Americans seem to be proud of their ignorance.
People from around the world have a name for us, they call us “Ugly Americans.” They are referring to our attitude and ignorance; people get tired of hearing that “we’re #1″, whatever that means. We formerly flaunted our “success”, our wealth and material possessions. What do we have to show for it now? A mountain of debt, no jobs and a bankrupt Federal government.
There isn’t much to boast or gloat about anymore, now that the low hanging fruit is gone and we are suddenly no better than anyone else. The old adage - sometimes better to be lucky than good, describes Post WWII Americans. We were in the right place at the right time, but not anymore.
Frankly, we are to blame for the current mess. We were warned that it was coming, peak oil, global warming, the impossibility of exponential growth, but what do the scientists know? Apparently, a lot more than the typical American.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/10/science/10survey.html?_r=1&hpw
Thanks Greg, for the link. Most compelling graphical depiction of peakeverything that I have seen.
In the linked article that Greg provided, one of the first statements is,”The underlying problem is exponential growth of the world’s population and associated consumption of natural resources.”
I have said a thousand times that if people could comprehend that one single statement, we could get on with solving the problems.
Most of you will remember an article that I wrote a while back complaining that the majority of our population continue to refer to the U.S. as the wealthiest nation on earth.
We hear such statements as, “The wealthiest nation on earth can provide healthcare for all of citizens. Or, there is no reason for homeless people in the wealthiest nation on earth.”
When will it sink in that personal debt in the U.S. is greater than our annual GDP? Or that we are in fact the largest debtor nation on earth. Or that some 20 Million Americans are unemployed. Or that there are 78 MILLION baby boomers who will break the Medicare and Social Security bank. Or that we import between 60% and 75% of our life giving oil.
The richest nation on earth? I think not.