Who’s Right and Who’s Wrong? Rewind Time:
Good Morning all of you great minds out there in semi-sanity land; your King of Simple News is on the air.
As I continue to vet the mainstream news in a continual effort to separate the wheat from the chafe, I’m finding very little wheat and a whole lot of chafe. Most of these people in news and politics have been wrong for so long that they are confused. Paid to be confused, yes, but confused all the same.
Below you will find a piece that I wrote back when the burning question was, “Is America going into recession?” You will remember that the talking heads, along with the President, Bernanke, and Greenspan said that housing would make a soft landing and we would avoid recession all together.
Here’s a King of Simple rewind to 2007:
Is the U.S. headed for recession? This is a tough subject for New Years Eve, but bad news doesn’t come in season and maybe you can make a New Years resolution not to get caught up in this mess.
I’m always somewhat amazed at the main stream news reports and their failure of having some semblance of connectivity with reality. I suppose jetting around the world and staying in 4 star resorts has some influence on how they think most people make a living.
On the recession question, the majority of these main streamers don’t want to be blatantly wrong, so they dip their toes in the water just enough to say later on that they went swimming.
Here’s an example of a good national news report. “Is the U.S. heading for recession? In my opinion, maybe so and maybe not. If a lot of people get jobs and they start making their house, car, and credit card payments, I believe recession could be avoided.”
Yet another; “While the housing, banking, and auto industries are in the toilet, it may be possible that the weak dollar will bolster strong sales in export products and the manufacturing sector will keep us out of recession…or, make it a short one, if we actually have one at all.”
Great reporting huh? “If” is the most powerful word in a reporter’s vocabulary. But not mine. Here’s my report, “We are going to have a recession and exports are not going to save the day.”
Let’s start out with one subject at a time. “Housing is in the toilet.” That’s putting it mildly; the housing toilet has been flushed. We are only beginning to see the fallout of the housing bubble that, by the way, was purposely created by the federal government that we all know and love.
How many people were making a living in the unsustainable area of residential housing? Home mortgage debt has increased by more than 94% since 1997! That should be sustainable, huh?
Again, the question remains, “Is recession lurking in the bushes?” Say you are a framing carpenter, concrete mason, sheet rocker, excavator, electrician, plumber, carpet layer, window installer, roofer, insulator, painter, real estate agent, developer, or one of about a thousand other professions that I could list whose work was previously supported by the housing boom.
Let’s also say that you live in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Detroit, Cleveland, or the entire states of Florida and California, where the existing housing inventory is sufficient to last for the next 27 years; what are you going to do?
Let’s make matters even worse by requiring that any future home buyers show up with decent credit, an actual job, and heaven forbid…a down payment.
It goes on. What if you were making a house payment, car payment, credit card payments and buying some occasional food on your previous wages in the now defunct housing sector? Let me guess, you have a FOR SALE sign in your front yard. No one notices it, due to a lawn decorating fad in your neighborhood where everyone has a For Sale sign on their front lawn.
As those who were previously involved in the home building business put their homes on the market, it strengthens the existing inventory and weakens the job pool. In business, this is called the point of diminishing returns.
Under normal circumstances, as a sound personal choice, one may consider relocation to an area where housing is booming. But then, these aren’t normal circumstances, because there are no areas where housing is booming. There are a few areas where housing is not totally dead, but the existing builders in those areas already have those jobs covered.
Ask this group of unemployed people that I just described whether they think recession is coming? While you’re at it, ask them is they believe that increased exports of manufactured goods is going to head off the recession? (If you are sensitive to bad language; don’t ask).
In the mean time, the main stream news reporter is off on assignment trying to find a manufacturing facility that is still open somewhere in the U.S. (in the area of their 4 star hotel).
And always remember; an official recession is when your neighbor is out of work, an official depression is when you are! [end past article].
So why do we as a nation continue to listen to the same people who are wrong every single day? Why do we reelect those who produced this horror movie? Ignorance would be my guess. Most people simply don’t want to get involved and certainly don’t want to think… “It ain’t my job.”
Wake up Middle America, the show’s almost over.
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It all goes back to people not wanting to hear any unpleasant news. If you tell folks things will be worse tomorrow than they are today, you will be ignored, attacked, and marginalized. No politician dares do anything like speak the truth, remember poor stupid Jimmy Carter?
So folks just extend and pretend, and hope that even though their neighbors have all lost their jobs, we will keep ours, and that everything will be ok, because it always has been…
Yet we are now seeing spin that the “recession” is over. Over only because of massive government intervention and stimulus in the tune of Trillion upon Trillions of “Our” dollars. Last I checked my share of Tax Payer’s dollars is hovering well over $350,000.00!! Oh, an I was attached to one of those manufacturing jobs you were talking about. One that was lost to outsourcing to China. So how will I ever come up with my $350,000.00 contribution, my fair share to pay off all this National debt and continuing stimulus??????? I’m unemployed!!!!
Thanks to Mike and a few other like minded individuals I was able to use the prior 5 years to pay off my little house and eliminate any and all personal debt. So in the short term I’m almost self sufficient and I’m prepared to weather almost any storm. However, in all reality all I’ve really managed to do is reserve a front row seat to the final band performance on the Titanic.
Whenry,
You said people believe that “everything will be ok, because it always has been.”
That’s a mouthful and great truth. We attempt to assure ourselves of a good future by looking at the past. Try driving while looking in the rear view mirror!
George,
The recession will end when unemployment drops below 4% and record numbers of homes are not being lost to foreclosure…and not one second sooner!
Stating that the recession is over is nothing more than a cheap political trick. “Obama has led us out of the wilderness,” is a reelection ploy, not a reality.
How many free passes do these dunderheads get?
I’ll be sitting on the curb with you watching the parade.
The good part about this go around is the fact that folks will not be able to pretend and ignore much longer.
The bad part is, the dangerous depletion of all vital natural resources, in the very near future, will eliminate any possibility of maintaining the standard of living we have enjoyed for so long, forever. And worse, even though our leaders have known this day would come for the past 40 years, they and we have done nothing substantial to usher in a single viable alternative. Lip service is the best they can muster even today, yet as you have indicated, we keep voting the same greedy, arrogant, ignorant leaders into office, in the form of republicans and democrats.
So what is the matter with us? It would take some time to go through the whole issue, but in a nut shell, it is simply ignorance and apathy. We purposely choose to let someone else do all our study and thinking for us when it comes to planning our future. We do not have time and of course we realize the politicians will get it right eventually (yeah, right).
This go around we will not have the opportunity to get it right. The barn door has been open for far too long and there is no hope of capturing any remaining stock. We will suffer the consequences of our ignorance and our apathy. And I would venture to guess, most will not learn a thing from the experience as they heatedly point their fingers from one to the other.
Many others, like some of those who participate at this site and other sites will study, so they can obtain an understanding of why we are headed in this dreadful direction. This is just one aspect of the preparation, Mike speaks of so often. These folks will have a sense of direction, however deplete of resources, to guide our nation to a better system in the future.
Symbolism will not make the bad things go into hiding. This is just and excuse the ignorant use for maintaining their denial under the greedy tyrants they continue to elect year after year. -bb
Just a quick note.. I often hear people say that we voted these mistakes into office..
I wonder.. Which choices were wrong.?? It’s easy to say that things wud be different if we had taken a different path.. But, I don’t recall a decent choice in at least the last thirty years..
I don’t believe we were ever given a choice to make a change.. That was done by our economic/political system.. We didn’t make wrong choices, we never had a choice..
And, please don’t say we should all have written in a worthy candidate.. That will happen when pigs fly.. The only reason that option is available, is because it is not possible..
wma…
Billy b,
I couldn’t have said it better myself!
Okay gang,
You’re on your own, I’m off to Phoenix to pick up a tractor and will catch up on the week-end.
This is an open forum, so throw out your thoughts and advice.
And now the AARP is going to join our very misdirected president and the group of ignorant, theives in congress by attempting to pass the 1900 page document that will, if passed, transfer even more wealth than the stimlus and strip more freedoms from Americans that will become very noticable in the near future. If this very flawed bill passes, those freedoms will be gone forever. The only good thing that could possibly come from passing this bill, would be that AARP would also collapse indirectly from their colossal error. Not much consulation, huh!!! If this thing passes, we can rest assured that we will never again, be able to enjoy a lifestyle even remotely similar to the one we’ve had all these years. Enjoy what is left of it now. Our government can only prop this mess up for so long; and it’s knees are getting wobbly already. -bb
This is completely off subject, but Mike said he was gone.. Hope nobody tells him..
The subject is “Stupid”..
I am old.. I keep thinking that one day, nothing will be able to surprise me.. At least about how stupid things have become..
But… I just bought a “camera phone” cell phone from Walmart.. I already have a cell phone, but thot it wud be nice to upgrade to a camera phone..
But, now.. I call Tracfone, and find out, that this camera phone (Motorola W376g).. Will take pictures.. It will store pictures, but that’s all.. I can’t send them to myself, and can’t take them off the phone.. The lady tech from Tracfone said I could “look” at them on the phone screen, but that was all..
My question is.?? Who was sitting in a corporate room, and decided this was not too stupid for the american consumer to put up with.?? Who said, this is “OK”.?? It will be ok.. We can get by with this.. Which begs two questions.. How stupid do they think we are,?? And How stupid are we.??
WmA…
Your camera cell phone is a little like the government healthcare bill. I’m not saying you got a deal on your camera phone or anything like that.
But at least your Tracfone will take pictures. The healthcare bill has very, very little to do with healthcare of any kind. We all, however, will suffer from severe economic health if this insane thing flies. -bb
Pournelle’s Iron Law of Bureaucracy states that in any bureaucratic organization there will be two kinds of people: those who work to further the actual goals of the organization, and those who work for the organization itself. Examples in education would be teachers who work and sacrifice to teach children, vs. union representative who work to protect any teacher including the most incompetent. The Iron Law states that in all cases, the second type of person will always gain control of the organization, and will always write the rules under which the organization functions
This coupled with government funding and the current political networks of cronyism encourages “Non Profits” to turn into Political Farm Clubs. Organizations useful in paying off loyal supporters and providing a ladder for the next generation of power brokers.
I never saw where it was a healthcare bill.. Except for the spin.. Isn’t it an insurance bill?? We get the insurance, and maybe something else.. Maybe something good.??
How well has “maybe” been working out for us lately.?? As Mike would say..
wma…
10.2% unemployment is the official Government Number for October. In reality just double that number and you have the REAL UNEMPLOYMENT at 20.4%
I thought this was a pretty tame view of the supposed healthcare bill, which has nothing to do with healthcare of course. He does bring up one very important point however. We have had for many years, just a one party system in our country:
“Tomorrow, the House of Representatives will vote on a 2,000 page bill to give the federal government the power to micromanage the health care of every single American. The bill will no doubt pass. It will raise your taxes, steal your freedom, invade your privacy, and ration your health care. Even the Republicans have introduced their version of Obamacare Lite. It, too, if passed, will compel employers to provide coverage, bribe the states to change their court rules, and tell insurance companies whom to insure.
We do not have two political parties in this country, America. We have one party; called the Big Government Party. The Republican wing likes deficits, war, and assaults on civil liberties. The Democratic wing likes wealth transfer, taxes, and assaults on commercial liberties. Both parties like power; and neither is interested in your freedoms. Think about it. Government is the negation of freedom. Freedom is your power and ability to follow your own free will and your own conscience. The government wants you to follow the will of some faceless bureaucrat.
When I recently asked Congressman James Clyburn, the third ranking Democrat in the House, to tell me “Where in the Constitution the federal government is authorized to regulate everyone’s healthcare”, he replied that most of what Congress does is not authorized by the Constitution, but they do it anyway. There you have it. Congress recognizes no limits on its power. It doesn’t care about the Constitution, it doesn’t care about your inalienable rights, it doesn’t care about the liberties protected by the Bill of Rights, it doesn’t even read the laws it writes.
America, this is not an academic issue. If this health care bill becomes law, life as you have known it, freedom as you have exercised it, privacy as you have enjoyed it, will cease to be.
When Congress takes away our freedoms, they will be gone forever. What will you do to prevent this from happening? - Judge Andrew Napolitano
The only sensible thing remaining is preparation, judge. Even a thorough job of that will not make things alright again; ever. But hopefully, acceptably uncomfortable. -bb
Hey Everyone, Thanks for keeping the conversation going. I made it to the desert and back in one piece…just barely.
We can add another category to who’s right and who’s wrong, as George reported, unemployment just tipped over to 10.2% and yet, Obama said 8% would be tops.
As I crossed the Navajo Reservation (largest in the U.S.), I found myself asking, “Is this Middle America in a few years?” But that’s a whole ‘nother story.
Lots of thoughts crossed my mind while driving 24 hours and I’ll post a few of the most important tomorrow.
Mike,
Just got back from a construction industry trade association meeting. The keynote speaker-a well known economist. The question-when will things get back to normal. The long term answer-increased birth and immigration rates. Population MUST grow to 425-450 million by 2120 in order to assure GROWTH and return to normalcy. This idiot received a standing ovation!
Did some traveling through Arizona myself last month. The stimulus funded road projects were less of an inconvenience than I expected due to the light volume of traffic. I often drove for many hours without seeing another vehicle.
Mike -
Had I known you were crossing through my area (FLG), I would’ve invited you out for dinner and a beer.
Next time, perhaps.
If you are coming this way anytime in the future, fire me an email and we can have a chat.
Sweaterman
Hutch,
Did you notice the number of gas stations that are closed? In all three states (CO, AZ, NM) I saw station after station abandoned.
Sweaterman,
Yep, I was through Flag twice in 6 hours but both times on a high lope. Next time I’ll stop and I also have other friends there to visit.