The Only Thing to Fear; Is Just About Everything That’s Happening:
There are so many important issues to talk about that I hardly know where to begin. The mainstream news and uttering’s from the financial channels are becoming more and more difficult to digest unless one considers it pure entertainment; which brings me to a story.
When I first moved to Anchorage, I couldn’t find a job in my preferred profession of communications (telephone, satellite, and microwave) and so I took the first thing that became available and that was a cab driver. I had no idea where anything was located, but I did have a map and a phone book…it was interesting for all concerned.
Most of my fares came from the airport cab stand where I learned a few things about my fellow humans. Prior to moving to Anchorage I had been a business owner, manager, and all around respected member of my community. Many of my cab fares were people of the upper crust who were staying at the then upscale, Westward, or Captain Cook hotels in downtown. These people treated me as if I were sub-human and existed on this earth only to serve as their lackey.
Rather than become angry or boisterous, I played a little game with these people with the rules stacked in my own financial interest. I would run out, grab their bags, yes sir, yes ma’am, hold the doors, and become a regular tour guide on the way to town with a lot more yes sirs and yes ma’ams thrown in for good measure.
When arriving at the hotel, I would run back and open the doors and then quickly tote their baggage to the bell stand. After which I would hold out my hand for a nice big fat tip from my superiors, which they felt obligated to provide. I would smile all the way back to the airport knowing that I won the game and the fare didn’t even know they were playing! What great entertainment and profitable to boot.
That’s how I now view the news and the non-stop political garbage coming out of Washington; as entertainment, not news. Once a person truly grasps the absolute reality that it is impossible to grow exponentially in a finite world, entertainment is about all that we can hope to gain from the actions of our leadership. And, until a majority of our population joins us in the basic comprehension of physics, earth sciences, and math, we may as well enjoy the show, cause nothin’s gonna change.
Here’s an example of what I am saying. I have warned for years that the final straw for the U.S. would come when China, India, Japan, Europe, and so on, understand that we are broke, and holding the door for us and totting our luggage will not be rewarded with a tip. At that point, they will be forced to switch to a “domestic expansion model,” in order to grow their own economies (family first). Very much as the U.S. did for our first 194 years of existence, until we hit the point of diminishing returns after which we sped ahead to the point of maximum debt.
An article yesterday indicated that my greatest fears have arrived and that Tim Geithner is ecstatic about the possibility. TOKYO – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday he’s encouraged by efforts in Japan and China to spur domestic demand instead of relying so heavily on American consumers — a shift that will contribute to more stable global growth. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091111/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_geithner_1
The obvious problem of billions of humans pursuing domestic expansion economic models is that should China alone consume at the same per-capita rate as Americans, they would require all known resources on the planet. Oh joy.
As an example, the U.S. consumes 25% of all oil produced in the world and 30% of all materials; we represent 4.8% of the global population. Do the math. And the possibility of the remainder of the world consuming more at home makes Geithner happy? Is he really that stupid? I’m thinkin’… maybe so. The other possibility is that believes that we are that stupid…maybe so.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a new article today listed the states that are broke, in the red, 10 toes up, and down and out; Arizona, California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. Other states — including Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, New York and Hawaii — were not far behind. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ten-most-troubled-states-in-cnnm-2889165804.html?x=0&.v=7
The bad news? Cuts necessary to bring these states back into line is anticipated to cost 900,000 additional jobs and shave a full percentage point off GDP. Well darn it Leon, ain’t anything gonna go right?
Don’t worry folks, the recession is over and hyper-growth is coming to the rescue. In the mean time, surely China will loan us a couple more $TRILLION to tide us over. Oh, that’s right, China is going to adopt a domestic expansion model and needs the money at home. Well, we’ll all just have to experience hyper-growth together. Some would call this a pyramid scheme, in America, we call it politics.
To cap off the entertaining news of the day, here’s a great two liner from Geithner; “It’s very important to the United States that we have a strong dollar. As growth recovers, we will move our fiscal position back into balance.”
If this blog doesn’t scare you, you’re either in a coma or you’re a member of Congress.

I suspect that even some members of congress are beginning to smell the foul odor coming from this treasury dept.
A strong dollar is not possible when it is so empty of substance. The USA is in that proverbial “between a rock and a hard spot” bind. The only thing that will strengthen the dollar is to remove the excess from circulation. With so many people unemployed, the reality is that they will just continue to pump more dollars in to circulation, making the problem worse.
As Pete Murphy documents so very clearly in his book Five Short Blasts, domestic consumption in the highly over populated countries just isn’t going to happen. It is just about as definite as are the infinite growth limitations.
The short term possibility of improvement is nil and long term I suspect a major default is imminent.
The “full faith and credit” of the USA is in serious jeopardy.
It scares me..
This morning, there is an article that they can’t decide what to do with unused, and repaid tarp money, like they just found a sack of new money..
I agree.. It’s crazy, stupid, weird.. Everything, except logical.. They want to put some aside for emergencies.???
But, these are smart people, and they are doing good things for themselves, the few rich..
I think they think that we are that stupid, and I fear they are right…
wma…
Clyde,
Thanks for the comment, good to hear from you.
With all due respect to Pete, his basic tenets are correct, yet he highly underestimates China, India, and other emerging nations abilities to raise consumption to unsustainable levels just by providing BASIC goods and services that we take for granted. Such as running water, refrigeration, electricity, food products, transportation, etc. etc. etc.
Pete also OVERESTIMATES this planets resources and the associated consumption necessary to keep the U.S. at status quo. In all fairness, Pete admits to having no expertise in this area.
All that aside, what we are experiencing is as serious as a heart attack. I believe we are being prepared for our long march to the bottom and who better to lead us than the Democrats and Republicans?
Wma,
It’s called, “spin till you win.” They don’t THINK most of our citizenry is stupid, the last election results proved that beyond a shadow of a doubt.
“We are going to borrow ourselves out of debt,” is the underlying mantra. But on this site, we don’t dance to that tune because we know that dog won’t hunt.
I need to throw this out for absorption while I’m thinking about it: The very best year that we have ever had since 1969 wasn’t enough!!!! We had deficit spending each and every year since. And the answer to a $1.75 TRILLION annual deficit is to grow out of it? Has the whole world gone nuts?
I feel like we are in a super slow motion car crash, brakes are locked, car is in a skid, and we know we are going to hit and there is nothing we can do about it, and all taking place in very very slow motion…
Everything speeds up quite a bit when your employment dries up and the pantry shelves start getting bare. Having millions of folks stuck in the same spot just doesn’t really do all that much to cheer one up at that time either. Enjoy the slow motion while it lasts. Believe me, it won’t last indefinitely. -bb
There are plenty of reasons to be fearful. The US and all of the other OECD nations have just driven their buses of a cliff. There isn’t much that can be done, except hope that the fall doesn’t kill us.
What is a bit comical is that China and India see this unfolding and keep driving their buses down the same road. Not only that, they want the bus to go faster. Crazy? Perhaps. But more likely, they are simply delusional. We humans do have an enormous capacity for that.
The other explanation is that China and India realize they are already too close to the cliff to stop. If they did hit the brakes hard enough to stop, they would instantly throw the bus out of control and be blamed for the crash. Worse yet, the leadership would probably be executed for willfully causing a wreck that killed people, and the economy, just as things were apparently on the upswing. Now THAT is a no win situation for the leadership.
We should know by now that humans will always take a short-term gain; regardless of how small, even if it means a catastrophic long-term loss. That decision shouldn’t surprise us. It is unrealistic; maybe even foolish, to expect the that opposite will happen. Humans are here today, at least in part, because we are “short-timers”.
The brilliant cave man who was too busy figuring out how to build a sustainable village, never notice the movement in the bushes. His genes never reach the gene pool. He wasn’t our ancestor. Our great, great, great, great… Grandfathers were the ones who were only concerned with the immediate problems of mating and survival. Those people are our ancestor. We have their genes. We are who we are, and rational thought processes don’t change that.
A long slow train wreck is best survived in the caboose. To be the last to reach the scene of the accident it is necessary to work at a vocation that is absolutely necessary.
We need a good discussion on how we all see this thing shaking out. How will our world change beyond the obvious?
Certainly, humans are not good planners. Our ability to borrow against the future of other humans ability to exist at all does not necessarily demonstrate intelligence, but rather, a lack thereof.
To validate Greg’s remark regarding us being short timers, I heard a news report tonight that said we are awash in oil (today) and therefore prices are going down. Even our most prized resource is measured in a day to day manner. “Got enough for today? We’re good.” And, we will be shocked when the day comes that there is no longer sufficient oil to run the country. Ain’t it amazing?