Auto Manufacturing; The Second Wave of Failure:
Good Morning all of you brilliant minds out there in sanity land (not Santy Land); your King of Simple News is on the air.
I’m off to get my truck rescued from the repair shop this morning. The computer went haywire and a new one is only $1300, not including labor (I found a new one on e-bay for $200). A $20.00 gasket in the front of my engine (Cummins diesel) was also leaking, but the labor to replace it requires removing the front of the truck and pulling the camshaft out of the engine in order to get to the gasket. Total cost, about $700 bucks (you can’t buy labor on e-bay).
On the new Ford diesels, to replace the fuel injectors requires 40 hours of labor. The entire cab must be removed from the truck! (You can’t make these things up). To replace the little radiator that provides the source of your cab heat (heater core) on the Fords requires removing the seat, steering column, and the entire dash, same goes for the air conditioning evaporator. The cost is around $700 to replace $50 items.
The Chevy Duramax diesel is horrible to work on and the parts are also horrendous in price. What do all of these trucks have in common? A new decked out diesel pickup will list at around $52,000. What we have here is American engineering at work. But soon American engineers won’t be working.
The idea was twofold, make a pickup that can do the work and make it pretty. The pretty part overruled any sensible engineering. The complexity of the electronics to meet pollution standards also drives the cost to manufacture and affects the repair bills that follow.
My mechanic noted that with the complexity of the engines and the difficulty of working on these modern trucks, that the entire hood should tilt forward for access to the engine and the electronic components, just exactly like they do on semi trucks. But then, that wouldn’t be all that stylish and pretty. Nope, that won’t do at all; style must trump function.
Cars are no exception. The repair bills and the repair parts continue to skyrocket. My friend John recently went in to get his third brake light (the one above the back window) replaced. He was told that it would cost more than $300. He determined that two brake lights are enough.
I see a terrible downturn coming in many areas of the auto industry and I’m not talking about the current freefall. GM has just determined that they will allow Saab to die the same death as Pontiac, Oldsmobile, and Saturn.
Here is what I wrote on the subject of autos in early 2003. “Auto manufacturers and dealers are in serious trouble with no answer in sight. 0 down and 0 interest for 5 years with a $3000 rebate and tickets to the ice capades is not a viable answer. It is my opinion that the American auto industry will have to be completely restructured to survive.
But they didn’t restructure and they didn’t survive. GM is now Government Motors and Chrysler is owned by the federal government and the foreign maker Fiat. Ford says they are doing okay, but don’t hold your breath.
What I have described above is yet another example of imbalance. The cost of autos and auto repair is severely out of balance with average incomes. No auto loan should extend beyond 36 months, yet seven years (84 months) is available. Nothing down, zero interest, and seven long years of payments; just don’t do it.
Regardless of how loony our society becomes, we all have to live here. When I wrote my book I was more than aware of that fact and therefore chapter 11 is titled, “Living in the System.” We may be forced to listen to the music, but we don’t have to dance to their tune.
Make the shift, live simple, live free, and live well.
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This has to be the quote of the day from Michael Goodwin, “Meanwhile, Mother Nature delivered her verdict with yesterday’s blizzard in Washington. I am cheered by the thought that finally, hell has frozen over.”
You know, I have to tell you, I really enjoy this blog and the insight from everyone who participates. I find it to be refreshing and very informative. I wish there were more blogs like it. Anyway, I felt it was about time I posted, I
Mike,
I’d recommend you go out and find a good Ford F-150 or F-250 truck from between 1968 and 1976. I’ve seen some in very good condition in the $1500 to $3500 range. No computers, not electronics, just a simple V8 or Diesel engine. Best truck ever! 35 years or so old and still bullet proof and very easy to work on.
Happy Hump day.. Today is 9 sec. longer where I live..
I think there is a new paradigm going with autos.. People used to think that maintaining an auto was cheaper than getting a new one.. While the new vehicles are worse, now repairing an older vehicle may be worse yet.. Note, now water hoses are made with specific ends, so that you have to purchase a much more expensive specific part, than just cut a length of hose, and install.. It’s all engineering… Just not engineered to be better, engineered to make more money..
wma…
GM missed its mark with Hummer years ago.
I was hoping that the Hummer brand would be a no-nonsense practical line of vehicles. It turned out to be just the opposite in the worse way–a decorated ghetto SUV.
I believe a lot of folks want simple trucks that can easily be self-maintained. But the money is in repair, parts and planned obsolescence.
Oh man, don’t get me started on the horrific places one has to crawl into to service modern cars. I pray that the heater core doesn’t fail on my Mercury Sable due to the above mentioned dash removal that must occur to replace it. Right now it’s running the the Check Engine light on because it’s blown one of the O2 sensors and the know sensor and I know from past experience what it’s going to take to replace them. Cars are viewed disposable and precious few people work on their own any more. Some things I finally give up on and pay a mechanic to fix them because I just don’t want to have the car inoperative for as long as it’s going to take me to sort it all out.
I certainly hit on a subject that is near and dear to many of us. What a mess. While the older rigs are easy to work on, It’s difficult to keep an older vehicle in top shape due to parts availability and the cost of the same. At some point, they are flatly worn out and beyond reasonable repair. I saw a breakdown of building a car from individual parts years ago and it came to about $250,000 without labor.
At $80 to $100 per hour shop rate, repairs can easily run more than the worth of the vehicle.
New vehicles are sooooo expensive when all elements are considered (depreciation, interest, license, insurance, taxes), that the warranty angle is a joke.
And yes, I think there are thousands of us who just want a simple dependable easily repaired piece of transportation. VW accomplished that and they were once referred to as Hilter’s revenge. Not so with the VWs of today.
It isn’t just “American” cars, my Lexus is just as bad for repairs. I have a couple of fifty cent lights bulbs out on my dash board. Cost to fix? Over $1,000. Needless to say, they aren’t getting fixed.
This is how car owners become pedestrians. They can’t afford to buy a new car, or if they can, they can’t get a loan. It isn’t worth the cost to fix the old one unless you can do it yourself, and there isn’t much on the car that is user serviceable.
Lacking mass transit, if your car stops running, you may need to stop working because you have no way to get to your job.
This is how industrial society collapses, one break down at a time. Nothing fast or fancy, no catastrophic injuries, just bleeding to death from a million little cuts.
I’m fortunate that I know a couple of top notch mechanics that do side work out of their own garage @ home. They get parts at a discounted rate and I pay $25.00 per hour CASH plus a case of beer for the work done. They make more $$$ per hour than they see in their paychecks so it’s a win/win for us both.
I’m also more than happy to ride a bike or a horse around town.
My old 1989 Chevy 3/4 ton pickup is a dandy. Does not require much along the lines of maintenance and is simple enough even for me to work on when required. Gas mileage is horrible, but I can buy a lot of gasoline for the repair costs mentioned above. And for what it’s worth the body is still in almost new condition. I have had dozens of compardres at work ask why i don’t buy a new truck? After reading this post, now I have an answer for them. -bb
“It’s all engineering… Just not engineered to be better, engineered to make more money..”
No, it’s management demanding that the engineers design money pits. The engineers go along to get along. Then the unions get blamed for it.
“It isn’t just “American” cars, my Lexus is just as bad for repairs.”
Toyota does the same thing. Here’s an example. The rear window latch on extended cab Tacomas tends to break. One reason is it’s in sunlight. One on my 1990 truck broke and I replaced it myself in 10 minutes with a screwdriver. The same latch broke on my 2001 Tacoma. So I bought a replacement only to discover, the entire panel and the seat belt/shoulder harness had to be removed. This is a prime example of inaccessibility by design!
Great topic! I believe it shows the heights of stupidity to which our society has risen. On the way home from cutting our Christmas tree this afternoon, my son Dave (an economics major) asked, “Why is a pickup truck as fancy as a Cadillac?” What a great question. Why on earth does a pickup truck have heated and electric leather seats and carpeting on the floor? And heated electric mirrors and on and on. All of these things are extras that often fail and cost a fortune to repair.
I do believe that the coming economic disruption will take care of many of these “extras” in all areas of our life by simply making them unaffordable.
As Mike noted, we are seeing many long-time brands disappearing, Buick, Oldsmobile, and some newer ones such as Saturn going the way of the dinosaur. It looks like at least one manufacturer; Saab, is just about gone.
It is only a matter of time before one or more of the big auto makers disappears. Given the dependence of our society on the automobile, an industry meltdown will have a huge ripple effect on the economy. There are too many “positive” feedback loops working against us, and too few “negative” ones working in our favor. Consequently, this downward spiral will continue gaining momentum.
It is increasingly clear that there is nothing anyone can do to arrest the decline. We are along for the ride and will need to adapt as best we can with the help of family, friends and like- minded neighbors.
Great thread. Transportation affects all of us in some way shape or form. When talking with the parts manager today he told me that he just ordered a mirror for a new Ford pickup, I’m sure it’s powered and heated…the price? $1100.00.
As Greg stated above, “This is how industrial society collapses, one break down at a time. Nothing fast or fancy, no catastrophic injuries, just bleeding to death from a million little cuts.”
“This is how industrial society collapses, one break down at a time.”
For some time, Jim Kunstler has predicted that large segments of the population will soon be “foreclosed from driving”, as he puts it. As they lose their incomes they can no longer afford to drive.
I had a 1984 Ford Ranger for a long time that I’d bought used. One thing that attracted me to the Ranger was the front suspension; it was Ford’s twin I-beam design, just like on the full-size trucks — absolutely indestructible. There was no power steering, it wasn’t needed; it’s a light truck.
I finally had to replace the truck in 1999. The new Ranger had a redesigned front suspension — looks more like it belongs in a car — and rack and pinion power steering. I didn’t need or want power steering, but had to pay for it anyway. All I really wanted was a new copy of the 1984 truck, but with a V-6 and power brakes. Needless to say, such a thing couldn’t be had. That wouldn’t be ‘progress’.
There’s a place in the market for a car and truck maker who builds a narrow line of basic transportation vehicles, soundly engineered and gimmick-free. How difficult a concept is that to catch onto?
Tom said, “…basic transportation vehicles, soundly engineered and gimmick-free. How difficult a concept is that to catch onto?”
In some towns they allow golf carts on the streets…that’s how basic we could get. In New Mexico, you can license your ATV for the road.
Some larger ATVs could easily be converted to small autos and when mass produced, could sell for peanuts.
Tom said, “…basic transportation vehicles, soundly engineered and gimmick-free. How difficult a concept is that to catch onto?”
You’d better keep an eye peeled for the “environment police” if you are going to make statements like this.
Entirely too much common sense going around on this blog.
Warning duly noted and appreciated.
Further to “…narrow line of…vehicles…”; my wife bought a new Nissan Sentra recently to replace a Pontiac Sunfire that was about to begin eating me alive with repairs. Nissan Canada has something like nineteen models in their lineup. Count ‘em, NINETEEN. That’s one car maker out of how many? Does the word ‘unsustainable’ not come to mind?
To finish this thread off with a bang, the Electronic Control Module that I received for my Cummins was the wrong one. The seller does not respond to my e-mails.
The local Cummins dealer said that they didn’t know what it would fit (Cummins part, Cummins part number) but would give me $400 for it on trade in. (just nice guys I guess).
I eventually ordered one from a reputable U.S. rebuilder that will be here tomorrow.
I have now learned that the ECM that I was originally sent is for a 2010 Cummins. Here’s the interesting part. The 2010 ECM lists at the Dodge dealer for $1328.00, Dodge dealers pay Cummins $790, Cummins sells the part to their direct Cummins dealers for around $400 (and they retail it at $1300) Cummins pays the manufacturer about $200 and the manufacturer is making money!!! Read it and weep. And now we all know the rest of the story.
You really can get something for nothing; what a great country.
Mike,
I think this thread brings up an interesting phenomenon: It was so easy to buy unecessary items when you didn’t have to pay cash for them.
You could “afford” a fancier car, a bigger house, and all sorts of crap made in communist China so that you had to rent a mini storage unit to store it in.
Our corporate overlords were more than happy to provide all of it and more, to the point we choked on it.
Hotrod,
Good point. Credit is equal to self inflicted indentured servitude.
This is once more an example of the human mind at work. We can convince ourselves in the heat of the buying moment that 30 years of struggling to make a house payment is worth the euphoria of maybe a month. We really are nuts.