A Vicious Cycle, With a Definite End:
Today’s article is courtesy of King of Simple News friend Mike Brehm.
By Mike Brehm, Flagstaff, Arizona
I do have a couple of observations that tie into your recent posts (”The Wheel Won’t Go” and “Feed Back Loops”) in which it is stated that:
“Wal-Mart cannot be a part of our lives if Middle America is to have a snowball’s chance. I stated the same in my book, but also predicted that Americans would aid and abet the enemy if it were a bargain; they did.”
That ties exactly into the positive feedback loop that Greg Chadwick wrote about a few posts later. Because “Big Business’” attempts to always lower their cost of production - which “we” all want, and hustle down to Wal-Mart to buy - which leads inevitably to a method of concentrating production in the cheapest locale (currently China), in the world.
The great feedback loop is built on our current economic way of thinking; that is, the folks who can manufacture the cheapest (currently China), produce those goods in ever greater quantities until eventually having just enough discretionary income to start thinking beyond the survival stage and embark on “stepping up” their own standard of living.
In other words, we’ve probably (hah, who am I kidding) - we’ve reached peak “growth” on this planet, in the sense that growth in any one area MUST lead to a decline in another.
However, deep inside, I know it can’t continue like that, even if it seems like a nice idea. The resources will give out long before the round-robin (a little fat bird) roosts in America again.
Subscribe to this blog
“Americans, don’t/won’t/can’t, consider a decline in our living standards. And, decline it will be.”
My income has been slashed by 60% since June 2009 and honestly my standard of living has dramatically increased. I don’t have a 50 to 60 hour per week HIGH STRESS job that was taking years off of my life. I had plenty of warning that my High Dollar job was going to end so I prepared for that day. I meet that day I knew I was going to be laid-off with anticipation because I leveraged my financial resources to pay off my house, my truck, and all other debt. My biggest expense each month is $117.00 for a High Deductible Health Plan, followed by my electric bill, water, sewer, trash and food. But most of my food I hunt and butcher myself and I have a large garden in the back yard. I guess my question is; Why does our standard of living have to include so much crap from so far away? My standard of living includes low stress, the great outdoors, local food and local drink.
I am a few days away from launching my electric bicycle. We garden and have some nice fruit trees. Deer are in the yard every night and we have the best water in the world running through the property. I can catch fish in walking distance. I own a welder and plenty of tools. I have watched this disaster happen for 30+ years. I am sorry for all the people that will suffer, but actually will get some pleasure in being proven to be right. There are quite a few of us in this area that are my age and feel pretty much like I do. I love Mike’s blog and visit it every day. I just introduced one of my friends to this forum yeterday. God bless the internet.
Greg, thanks for your insights. Sad, but true, people will search for the almighty bargain made in any country that can sell it cheaper.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch (America) we have skyrocketing unemployment that shows no signs of truly decreasing; look at this excerpt from an AP release:
“In another nationwide trend, long-suffering states like California and Michigan saw their jobless rates stabilize even as they continued to bleed jobs. That’s because thousands of frustrated workers gave up hunting for work and dropped out of the labor force, which means they aren’t included in the unemployment rate.
California lost 38,800 jobs, the most of any state. But its unemployment rate was unchanged at 12.4 percent, the fifth-highest in the nation. That’s because 107,000 people, or 0.6 percent of the state’s work force, gave up and stopped job-hunting.
Michigan shed 15,700 jobs, but 31,000 people left the labor force. That caused the state’s jobless rate to fall slightly, to 14.6 percent from 14.7 percent. Michigan has the nation’s highest unemployment rate.
Nationally, more than 600,000 people left the labor force in December, according to government data. The large exodus from the labor force indicates that “unemployment is a lot worse than the numbers suggest,” Koropeckyj said.”
As for our family, we spent the day clearing blackberry vines and building fence, adding a third fenced area to grow a more magnificent garden, including some land for cultivating grains. Life just gets better and better the more we spend time at home outdoors creating our own corner of paradise.
George asked, “Why does our standard of living have to include so much crap from so far away?”
The short answer is that it doesn’t. Our leadership has failed us by shipping our jobs over seas while at the same time importing millions of job seekers.
However, we have what we have and must live with our poor choices. It seems that George is doing just fine in that area.
Redhoss,
Thank you very much for the nice comments. Those that can…do. Self planning is absolutely imperative, because it’s become apparent that government isn’t capable of it.
Country Lady,
Thank you for the new statistics. What is it that could ever possibly make any nation believe that shipping their core industry and base jobs to a Communist country was a good idea?
It’s all about money for the elite, that simple, no other explanation necessary.
Mike B, you make a good point, this is a cycle and the wave of growth will pass over China just like it passed over the US. How many more cycles will come and go before we run out of cheap energy? I don’t know, but some people who understand energy issues think this may be the decade when things begin to contract on a global level.
My hat is off to all of you who have had the good sense to distance yourself from our consumer life style. Given our circumstances, that is the way to go.
Do any have a glimmer of hope for the crowded city apartment dweller with no survival skills beyond knowing the directions to the fast foods store?
Uncounted millions fall in to this catagory and if they had a hint of what you folks know, they would be in sheer panic.
There is no way they can even think about the kind of preparations being discussed here. What will the fallout be when the collapse happens?
“Do any have a glimmer of hope for the crowded city apartment dweller with no survival skills beyond knowing the directions to the fast foods store?” - ClydeB
I give you two examples that should answer your question Clyde. First example New Orleans a couple of days before and the weeks, months and years following Katrina. Second example Haiti. I could also toss in California a few years back when they had issues for months with blackouts and other power related issues. Clueless and ill-prepared. King George III never had it so good back in 1776.
George brings up a good point, natural disasters will continue to happen; however, now we don’t have the money or energy to rebuild completely.
As these disasters occur, those living in the affected area will experience a permanent reduction in their standard of living. As a result, these cities and regions will no longer contribute much to the global economy. This is a negative feedback loop that will become more common with each passing year.
This could be the way the collapse plays out; a series of “small” declines, that when combined with other setbacks, sets in motion negative feedback loops that slowly bring down the system.
It’s difficult to comprehend that at this juncture it would be physically impossible to rebuild the U.S. from an infrastructure standpoint.
As we see the Federal Government, State Governments, cities, counties, towns, and the general public, simultaneously falling into impossible debt, we are getting our first glimpse of what happens to a nation where growth has stopped.
I know, the promise is now that things will get better in five years or whatever time frame the government is now using, but we will NEVER see growth at the level necessary for a complete recovery.
Why? Because exponential growth was never possible outside of the warped minds of the social science gang.
George,
Good examples, but in each of them, there was still the expectation of recovery and rebuilding. With the scenario now being presented on these pages, that is now a false premise and there is no possible hope for the folks I mentioned.
What happens when that realization hits them?
Can you defend that which you have?
I have a lot of concern for the city dwellers - they really do not have a chance. Because some of our children and family members live in cities, our plan is planting extra fruit trees, having an over-abundant garden and adding guest quarters in our greenhouse. We also have food storage that we are increasing over time.
We can’t rescue every city person, but maybe if we each make room for a few, we can help out according to our capacity.
“Can you defend that which you have?”
Where I live I’m confident that my neighborhood if not the town of 1,200 that I call home would do an outstanding job of defending what we have. It goes to the root of community and a lifetime of neighbors helping neighbors. I’d say that holds true for most rural areas of the county. Most everyone has a 6 month to a years supply of food, firewood, and a fair supply of water. Add to that the knowledge and ability to handle a firearm. You should see some of the personal arsenals people have out here in the sticks. Small communities will circle the wagons if things get really bad. I pity the outsider that tries to take what is not his.
What everyone is eluding to is the end of exponential growth which has artificially supported the growth of cities.
If we have in fact reached the end of our impossible journey, the cities will take the biggest hit as the “created,” jobs are concentrated in those densely populated urban areas and those jobs will no longer be viable.
Entire sectors of our current economy will cease to exist. No different than when buggy manufacturers and livery stables disappeared with the advent of the horseless carriage.
Does misery actually like company? If so, the U.S. has plenty of company.
Our media attempts to try and contain our sound bite economic news broadcasts to the U.S. as if we were the only people on the planet. But, not so…
BERLIN (AP) — Greece and other euro-zone countries with excessive budget deficits must do everything they can to put their finances in order, the president of the European Central Bank said in an interview published Saturday.
The European Union has been pressing Athens to implement a strict austerity plan and plug its deficit, which stands at more than four times the EU-mandated limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product.
In comparison, our budget deficit for 2009 was approximately 9% of GDP, a GDP that includes power shopping and all government expenditures.
Years ago, mounted on the dash in front of the passenger seat of my Jeep, there was a sturdy handle that we referred to as the “Oh My God” bar. If you do not have such a grip, I would suggest installing one.
Mike,
The “Oh My God” bar in your Jeep is too funny. My Chevy S10 ZR2 has the same bar on the passenger side mounted just above where the air bag deployed. Speaking of “Oh My God” I just read an article regarding the projected 2010 Foreclosure rates for residential homes easily eclipsing the foreclosures of 2008 and 2009. It does not mention the “Exponential Rate” of foreclosures that commercial real-estate is experiencing.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/183651-housing-double-dip
Let’s see if we can work the math on foreclosures George.
1. Fewer people have been employed every month for the past 26 consecutive months.
2. There is a rumor that many people use their job incomes to make their house payments and to buy store bought items.
3. The value of homes has fallen month after month…not so, the amount of the mortgage.
4. We are told that we have entered a “jobless recovery.” How nice.
5. The last time I checked, Commercial real estate was totally dependent on the public having money (i.e. jobs).
So lets analyze the probable outcome of the above factors. Yep, strange as it may seem to our leadership, both residential and commercial real estate are in for a record round of foreclosures.
Mike -
Thanks for putting my ideas into print, and thanks to everyone for their input.
We’ve been busy digging out from Flagstaff’s crazy storms so I haven’t been able to respond to anyone; my neighbors and I have been busy digging out our streets and sidewalks and taking breaks for coffee and chili.
One thing, that I noticed is that everyone who contributes here is already well along the way towards becoming self-sufficient or at least community-sufficent, so that a downturn in our “living standards” isn’t the impact that will affect most poeple.
As a group, we already know and understand the results of the over-extension of our economic and political systems (especially our economic system) and don’t seem to be in the situation where it will impact us as directly and as harshly as it will many, many others.
It is a remarkable wonder that we can all come together here, share ideas and promote methods that will encourage us towards this return to a more community-based, self-sufficient way of life. I am quite glad that we can all contribute and look forward to much more from all of us.
Once again, thanks to all for comments and listening!